The closest senate race in the nation is in Nevada, where Republican Joe Heck holds a 0.01% lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, according to this site. Heck is the only Republican whose poll numbers have plummeted since Donald Trump's disastrous "grab her by the pussy" comments became public. Heck unendorsed Donald Trump, but then got booed for it at a campaign rally. Public Policy Polling found that 34% of voters were less likely to vote for Heck since his unendorsement, compared to 19% more likely.
New Hampshire's Kelly Ayotte also unendorsed Trump at the same time that Joe Heck did, but her polling numbers have remained basically constant so far.
Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +46.3 (Schumer 73.2 - Long 26.9)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
43 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 43.4)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.6 (Bennet 54.2 - Glenn 41.6)
Likely Dem
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +7.9 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 43.1)
Lean Dem
47 - Indiana - Bayh +5.4 (Bayh 49.7 - Young 44.3)
Toss Up
48 - Wisconsin - Feingold +2.1 (Feingold 51.1 - Johnson 49.0)
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +0.4 (McGinty 48.9 - Toomey 48.4)
51 - Nevada - Heck +0.01 (Heck 47.88 - Cortez Masto 47.87)
50 - North Carolina - Burr +1.0 (Burr 49.0 - Ross 48.0)
49 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +2.1 (Ayotte 49.4 - Hassan 47.4)
48 - Missouri - Blunt +2.4 (Blunt 50.0 - Kander 47.7)
47 - Florida - Rubio +2.8 (Rubio 50.6 - Murphy 47.8)
Lean GOP
None
Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.5 (Rand Paul 55.0 - Jim Gray 45.5)
Solid GOP
45 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
44 - Georgia - Isakson +14.3 (Isakson 54.6 - Barksdale 40.3)
43 - Ohio - Portman +15.1 (Portman 56.7 - Strickland 41.6)
42 - Kansas - Moran +16.1 (Moran 55.6 - Wiesner 39.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +16.6 (Grassley 57.5 - Judge 41.0)
40 - Arizona - McCain +18.0 (McCain 58.5 - Kirkpatrick 40.5)
39 - Arkansas - Boozman +18.2 (Boozman 54.4 - Eldridge 36.2)
38 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)37 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
36 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
35 - Utah - Lee +33.8 (Lee 64.4 - Snow 30.6)
34 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
33 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +35.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 10/6 | 49 | 9 | -40 | 52.5 | 20.5 | -32.0 |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | 10/2 | 50 | 12 | -38 | 56.2 | 17.2 | -39.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +18.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 52 | 36 | -15 | 53.7 | 39.6 | -14.1 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 53 | 35 | -18 | 58.5 | 40.5 | -18.0 |
| 3 | Marist | 9/8 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 59.2 | 40.9 | -18.3 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +18.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Hendrix College | 9/17 | 55 | 29 | -26 | 57.9 | 34.6 | -23.3 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +12.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/13 | 38 | 48 | 10 | 40.7 | 58.3 | +17.6 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/2 | 35 | 53 | 18 | 37.8 | 55.2 | +17.4 |
| 3 | PPP | 9/28 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 41.4 | 51.6 | +10.2 |
| 4 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 43 | 53 | 10 | 44.0 | 54.1 | +10.1 |
| 5 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 43 | 52 | 9 | 44.7 | 54.4 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Franklin & Marshall | 9/18 | 31 | 42 | 11 | 41.8 | 53.2 | +11.4 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +2.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/13 | 44 | 36 | -8 | 48.2 | 50.8 | +2.6 |
| 2 | PPP | 10/13 | 44 | 38 | -6 | 49.9 | 44.1 | -5.8 |
| 3 | Opinion Savvy | 10/11 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 52.2 | 47.9 | -4.3 |
| 4 | Marist | 10/5 | 48 | 46 | -2 | 49.7 | 48.4 | -1.3 |
| 5 | Tel Opinion Research | 10/4 | 49 | 41 | -8 | 51.3 | 47.8 | -3.5 |
| 6 | U. of North Florida | 10/4 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 52.2 | 45.9 | -6.3 |
| 7 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 47 | 39 | -8 | 50.0 | 43.8 | -6.2 |
| 8 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 51.7 | 48.4 | -3.3 |
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| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +14.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Landmark | 10/12 | 50 | 37 | -14 | 54.6 | 40.5 | -14.1 |
| 2 | JMC Analytics | 9/22 | 41 | 28 | -13 | 54.1 | 42.0 | -12.1 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 34 | -21 | 59.7 | 39.4 | -20.3 |
| 4 | Monmouth U. | 9/18 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.3 | 38.7 | -16.6 |
| 5 | Opinion Savvy | 9/14 | 47 | 34 | -13 | 53.9 | 40.3 | -13.6 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +7.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | 10/5 | 37 | 41 | 4 | 41.0 | 53.0 | +12.0 |
| 2 | SIU-Carbondale | 10/2 | 34 | 48 | 14 | 39.2 | 53.6 | +14.4 |
| 3 | Normington Petts | 9/29 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 50.1 | 49.9 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 43.1 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Loras College | 9/16 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 47.4 | 51.0 | +3.6 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +5.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/13 | 42 | 48 | 6 | 44.3 | 49.7 | +5.4 |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | 10/11 | 40 | 39 | -1 | 42.3 | 49.7 | +7.4 |
| 3 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 39 | 42 | 3 | 48.5 | 51.5 | +3.0 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +16.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 46 | 36 | -10 | 54.0 | 44.0 | -10.0 |
| 2 | Selzer | 10/6 | 53 | 36 | -17 | 57.5 | 40.5 | -17.0 |
| 3 | Loras College | 9/22 | 54 | 37 | -17 | 59.1 | 41.0 | -18.1 |
| 4 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 43 | -12 | 55.7 | 44.4 | -11.3 |
| 5 | Monmouth U. | 9/14 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 57.8 | 40.2 | -17.6 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +16.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 9/11 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.6 | 39.5 | -16.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +9.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage (Google C.S.) | 9/16 | 33 | 25 | -7 | 53.3 | 46.7 | -6.6 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | University of Maryland | 9/30 | 29 | 58 | 29 | 32.5 | 61.5 | +29.0 |
| 2 | Goucher College | 9/20 | 24 | 54 | 30 | 34.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +2.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/11 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 40 | 42 | 2 | 43.3 | 47.0 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 4 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | R | +0.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 45 | 52 | 7 | 45.5 | 52.6 | +7.1 |
| 2 | YouGov | 10/14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 48.8 | 47.2 | -1.6 |
| 3 | JMC Analytics | 10/13 | 41 | 47 | 6 | 41.4 | 48.1 | +6.7 |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | 10/12 | 47 | 44 | -3 | 47.3 | 48.7 | +1.4 |
| 5 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 10/11 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 48.5 | 43.6 | -4.9 |
| 6 | PPP | 10/11 | 39 | 43 | 4 | 52.4 | 47.6 | -4.8 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +2.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | MassINC | 10/12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 49.4 | 49.6 | +0.2 |
| 2 | UMass Lowell | 10/11 | 45 | 44 | -1 | 48.0 | 47.1 | -0.9 |
| 3 | PPP | 10/9 | 43 | 44 | 1 | 52.7 | 47.4 | -5.3 |
| 4 | Suffolk U. | 10/5 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 51.4 | 44.7 | -6.7 |
| 5 | GBA Strategies | 9/27 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 45.4 | 47.6 | +2.2 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +46.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marist | 9/23 | 24 | 70 | 46 | 26.7 | 73.4 | +46.7 |
| 2 | Siena | 9/15 | 23 | 69 | 46 | 26.9 | 73.2 | +46.3 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 8/30 | 23 | 60 | 37 | 28.4 | 66.7 | +38.3 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +1.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 49.0 | 48.1 | -0.9 |
| 2 | Marist | 10/12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48.7 | 49.4 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 10/12 | 45 | 43 | -2 | 48.5 | 48.0 | -0.5 |
| 4 | Suffolk U. | 10/12 | 40 | 36 | -3 | 49.2 | 45.3 | -3.9 |
| 5 | High Point U. | 10/6 | 47 | 42 | -5 | 49.5 | 44.5 | -5.0 |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | 10/3 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.6 | 47.5 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 49.2 | 49.9 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Selzer | 10/2 | 44 | 46 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Elon U. | 9/30 | 44 | 45 | 1 | 47.1 | 47.9 | +0.8 |
| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +15.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 56 | 40 | -16 | 57.0 | 41.1 | -15.9 |
| 2 | Marist | 10/12 | 55 | 37 | -18 | 57.2 | 39.9 | -17.3 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 10/12 | 47 | 30 | -17 | 54.7 | 39.0 | -15.7 |
| 4 | Baldwin Wallace U. | 10/11 | 48 | 36 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 5 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 47 | 33 | -14 | 56.0 | 42.0 | -14.0 |
| 6 | YouGov | 10/7 | 49 | 38 | -11 | 54.8 | 42.2 | -12.6 |
| 7 | PPP | 10/6 | 51 | 36 | -15 | 56.9 | 42.1 | -14.8 |
| 8 | Monmouth U. | 10/4 | 54 | 39 | -15 | 56.8 | 41.2 | -15.6 |
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| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +24.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/12 | 32 | 54 | 22 | 36.6 | 58.5 | +21.9 |
| 2 | Gravis | 10/4 | 33 | 52 | 19 | 36.2 | 63.8 | +27.6 |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +0.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Selzer | 10/11 | 45 | 47 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 40 | 39 | -1 | 50.0 | 49.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Susquehanna / VSS | 10/9 | 42 | 38 | -4 | 48.1 | 44.0 | -4.1 |
| 4 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 50.3 | 48.7 | -1.6 |
| 5 | Marist | 10/7 | 44 | 48 | 4 | 46.7 | 51.4 | +4.7 |
| 6 | Monmouth U. | 10/3 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48.8 | 48.2 | -0.6 |
| 7 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 50 | 42 | -8 | 53.2 | 45.9 | -7.3 |
| 8 | Franklin & Marshall | 10/2 | 35 | 41 | 6 | 45.8 | 52.2 | +6.4 |
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| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +33.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/12 | 60 | 31 | -29 | 63.3 | 33.7 | -29.6 |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 9/9 | 60 | 23 | -37 | 65.5 | 27.6 | -37.9 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +17.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/27 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 44.5 | 52.2 | +7.7 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 25 | 46 | 21 | 38.5 | 59.5 | +21.0 |
| 3 | Elway | 8/13 | 34 | 52 | 18 | 41.3 | 58.8 | +17.5 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +2.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marquette | 10/9 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 49.0 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
| 2 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 49.3 | 50.7 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Loras College | 10/5 | 45 | 40 | -5 | 51.9 | 45.6 | -6.3 |
| 4 | Gravis | 10/4 | 41 | 53 | 12 | 42.0 | 58.1 | +16.1 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 42 | 52 | 10 | 42.7 | 53.9 | +11.2 |
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