Saturday, October 15, 2016

October 15: Democrats 49 Seats, Republicans 51 Seats




Senate Race Ratings: 
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +46.3 (Schumer 73.2 - Long 26.9)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
43 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 43.4)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.2 (Bennet 54.2 - Glenn 42.0)

Likely Dem 
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +7.9 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 43.1)

Lean Dem
47 - Indiana - Bayh +5.4 (Bayh 49.7 - Young 44.3)

Toss Up 
48 - Wisconsin - Feingold +2.1 (Feingold 51.1 - Johnson 49.0)
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +0.4 (McGinty 48.9 - Toomey 48.4)
51 - North Carolina - Burr +0.8 (Burr 48.7 - Ross 47.9)
50 - Nevada - Heck +0.9 (Heck 48.5 - Cortez Masto 47.6)
49 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +2.1 (Ayotte 49.4 - Hassan 47.4)
48 - Missouri - Blunt +2.4 (Blunt 50.0 - Kander 47.7)
47 - Florida - Rubio +2.8 (Rubio 50.6 - Murphy 47.8)

Lean GOP
None

Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.5 (Rand Paul 55.0 - Jim Gray 45.5)

Solid GOP 
45 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
44 - Georgia - Isakson +14.3 (Isakson 54.6 - Barksdale 40.3)
43 - Ohio - Portman +14.7 (Portman 56.5 - Strickland 41.9)
42 - Kansas - Moran +16.1 (Moran 55.6 - Wiesner 39.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +16.6 (Grassley 57.5 - Judge 41.0)
40 - Arizona - McCain +18.0 (McCain 58.5 - Kirkpatrick 40.5)
39 - Arkansas - Boozman +18.2 (Boozman 54.4 - Eldridge 36.2)
38 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)
37 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
36 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
35 - Utah - Lee +33.8 (Lee 64.4 - Snow 30.6)
34 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
33 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40

Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:

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Alabama Adjusted: R +30.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Shelby) Democrat (Crumpton) Spread (D-R) Republican (Shelby) Democrat (Crumpton) Spread (D-R)
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Alaska Adjusted: R +35.5
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Murkowski) Democrat (Metcalfe) Spread (D-R) Republican (Murkowski) Democrat (Metcalfe) Spread (D-R)
1 Moore 10/6 49 9 -40 52.5 20.5 -32.0
2 Alaska Survey Research 10/2 50 12 -38 56.2 17.2 -39.0
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Arizona Adjusted: R +18.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (McCain) Democrat (Kirkpatrick) Spread (D-R) Republican (McCain) Democrat (Kirkpatrick) Spread (D-R)
1 Emerson College 10/4 52 36 -15 53.7 39.6 -14.1
2 Insights West 9/14 53 35 -18 58.5 40.5 -18.0
3 Marist 9/8 57 38 -19 59.2 40.9 -18.3
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Arkansas Adjusted: R +18.2
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Boozman) Democrat (Eldridge) Spread (D-R) Republican (Boozman) Democrat (Eldridge) Spread (D-R)
1 Hendrix College 9/17 55 29 -26 57.9 34.6 -23.3
2 Emerson College 9/13 44 30 -15 51.0 37.8 -13.2
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Colorado Adjusted: D +12.2
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Glenn) Democrat (Bennet) Spread (D-R) Republican (Glenn) Democrat (Bennet) Spread (D-R)
1 Gravis 10/4 39 47 8 42.2 58.8 +16.6
2 Monmouth U. 10/2 35 53 18 37.8 55.2 +17.4
3 PPP 9/28 34 44 10 41.4 51.6 +10.2
4 Opinion Research (CNN) 9/25 43 53 10 44.0 54.1 +10.1
5 Quinnipiac 9/21 43 52 9 44.7 54.4 +9.7
6 Franklin & Marshall 9/18 31 42 11 41.8 53.2 +11.4
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Connecticut Adjusted: D +26.5
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Carter) Democrat (Blumenthal) Spread (D-R) Republican (Carter) Democrat (Blumenthal) Spread (D-R)
1 Emerson College 9/5 33 54 21 38.9 61.2 +22.3
2 Quinnipiac 6/5 30 60 30 33.2 63.9 +30.7
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Florida Adjusted: R +2.8
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Rubio) Democrat (Murphy) Spread (D-R) Republican (Rubio) Democrat (Murphy) Spread (D-R)
1 PPP 10/13 44 38 -6 49.9 44.1 -5.8
2 Opinion Savvy 10/11 48 44 -4 52.2 47.9 -4.3
3 Marist 10/5 48 46 -2 49.7 48.4 -1.3
4 Tel Opinion Research 10/4 49 41 -8 51.3 47.8 -3.5
5 U. of North Florida 10/4 47 41 -6 52.2 45.9 -6.3
6 Gravis 10/4 44 40 -4 47.5 52.6 +5.1
7 Emerson College 10/4 47 39 -8 50.0 43.8 -6.2
8 Quinnipiac 10/2 48 44 -4 51.7 48.4 -3.3
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Georgia Adjusted: R +14.3
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Isakson) Democrat (Barksdale) Spread (D-R) Republican (Isakson) Democrat (Barksdale) Spread (D-R)
1 Landmark 10/12 50 37 -14 54.6 40.5 -14.1
2 JMC Analytics 9/22 41 28 -13 54.1 42.0 -12.1
3 Quinnipiac 9/21 55 34 -21 59.7 39.4 -20.3
4 Monmouth U. 9/18 50 34 -16 55.3 38.7 -16.6
5 Opinion Savvy 9/14 47 34 -13 53.9 40.3 -13.6
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Illinois Adjusted: D +7.9
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Kirk) Democrat (Duckworth) Spread (D-R) Republican (Kirk) Democrat (Duckworth) Spread (D-R)
1 GS Strategy Group 10/5 37 41 4 41.0 53.0 +12.0
2 SIU-Carbondale 10/2 34 48 14 39.2 53.6 +14.4
3 Normington Petts 9/29 37 46 9 50.1 49.9 -0.2
4 Emerson College 9/20 39 41 2 43.1 46.1 +3.0
5 Loras College 9/16 36 41 5 47.4 51.0 +3.6
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Indiana Adjusted: D +5.4
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Todd Young) Democrat (Evan Bayh) Spread (D-R) Republican (Todd Young) Democrat (Evan Bayh) Spread (D-R)
1 Monmouth U. 10/13 42 48 6 44.3 49.7 +5.4
2 Public Opinion Strategies (POS) 10/11 40 39 -1 42.3 49.7 +7.4
3 Luc.id/Times-Picayune 10/10 39 42 3 48.5 51.5 +3.0
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Iowa Adjusted: R +16.6
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Grassley) Democrat (Judge) Spread (D-R) Republican (Grassley) Democrat (Judge) Spread (D-R)
1 Luc.id/Times-Picayune 10/10 46 36 -10 54.0 44.0 -10.0
2 Selzer 10/6 53 36 -17 57.5 40.5 -17.0
3 Loras College 9/22 54 37 -17 59.1 41.0 -18.1
4 Quinnipiac 9/21 55 43 -12 55.7 44.4 -11.3
5 Monmouth U. 9/14 56 39 -17 57.8 40.2 -17.6
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Kansas Adjusted: R +16.1
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Moran) Democrat (Wiesner) Spread (D-R) Republican (Moran) Democrat (Wiesner) Spread (D-R)
1 SurveyUSA 9/11 50 34 -16 55.6 39.5 -16.1
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Kentucky Adjusted: R +9.5
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Rand Paul) Democrat (Jim Gray) Spread (D-R) Republican (Rand Paul) Democrat (Jim Gray) Spread (D-R)
1 Babbage (Google C.S.) 9/16 33 25 -7 53.3 46.7 -6.6
2 Harper 8/1 50 38 -12 56.7 44.4 -12.3
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Louisiana Adjusted: R +13.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Kennedy) Democrat (Campbell) Spread (D-R) Republican (Kennedy) Democrat (Campbell) Spread (D-R)
1 Remington 8/30 51 27 -24 56.5 43.5 -13.0
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Maryland Adjusted: D +30.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Szeliga) Democrat (Van Hollen) Spread (D-R) Republican (Szeliga) Democrat (Van Hollen) Spread (D-R)
1 University of Maryland 9/30 29 58 29 32.5 61.5 +29.0
2 Goucher College 9/20 24 54 30 34.0 64.0 +30.0
3 OpinionWorks 8/30 26 55 29 35.3 64.8 +29.5
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Missouri Adjusted: R +2.4
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Blunt) Democrat (Kander) Spread (D-R) Republican (Blunt) Democrat (Kander) Spread (D-R)
1 Monmouth U. 10/11 46 44 -2 49.8 47.2 -2.6
2 Emerson College 9/13 40 42 2 43.3 47.0 +3.7
3 Remington 9/2 47 40 -7 50.3 49.8 -0.5
4 PPP 8/27 47 43 -4 51.9 48.1 -3.8
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Nevada Adjusted: R +0.9
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Heck) Democrat (Cortez Masto) Spread (D-R) Republican (Heck) Democrat (Cortez Masto) Spread (D-R)
1 JMC Analytics 10/13 41 47 6 41.4 48.1 +6.7
2 Public Opinion Strategies (POS) 10/12 47 44 -3 47.3 48.7 +1.4
3 Clarity Campaign Labs 10/11 40 41 1 48.5 43.6 -4.9
4 PPP 10/11 39 43 4 52.4 47.6 -4.8
5 Emerson College 10/4 45 41 -5 48.5 44.9 -3.6
6 Hart Research Assocs. 10/2 47 46 -1 51.2 48.9 -2.3
7 Bendixen & Amandi 9/29 47 45 -2 51.0 49.0 -2.0
8 Suffolk U. 9/29 38 35 -3 47.4 43.7 -3.7
9 AR/Shaw (Fox News) 9/20 43 36 -7 47.2 39.8 -7.4
New Hampshire Adjusted: R +2.1
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Ayotte) Democrat (Hassan) Spread (D-R) Republican (Ayotte) Democrat (Hassan) Spread (D-R)
1 MassINC 10/12 47 47 0 49.4 49.6 +0.2
2 UMass Lowell 10/11 45 44 -1 48.0 47.1 -0.9
3 PPP 10/9 43 44 1 52.7 47.4 -5.3
4 Suffolk U. 10/5 47 41 -6 51.4 44.7 -6.7
5 GBA Strategies 9/27 44 47 3 45.4 47.6 +2.2
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New York Adjusted: D +46.3
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Long) Democrat (Schumer) Spread (D-R) Republican (Long) Democrat (Schumer) Spread (D-R)
1 Marist 9/23 24 70 46 26.7 73.4 +46.7
2 Siena 9/15 23 69 46 26.9 73.2 +46.3
3 Emerson College 8/30 23 60 37 28.4 66.7 +38.3
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North Carolina Adjusted: R +0.8
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Burr) Democrat (Ross) Spread (D-R) Republican (Burr) Democrat (Ross) Spread (D-R)
1 Marist 10/12 46 46 0 48.7 49.4 +0.7
2 Emerson College 10/12 45 43 -2 48.5 48.0 -0.5
3 Suffolk U. 10/12 40 36 -3 49.2 45.3 -3.9
4 High Point U. 10/6 47 42 -5 49.5 44.5 -5.0
5 SurveyUSA 10/3 46 44 -2 49.6 47.5 -2.1
6 Quinnipiac 10/2 46 46 0 49.2 49.9 +0.7
7 Selzer 10/2 44 46 2 48.0 50.0 +2.0
8 Elon U. 9/30 44 45 1 47.1 47.9 +0.8
9 PPP 9/28 41 39 -2 47.9 46.1 -1.8
North Dakota Adjusted: R +35.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Hoeven) Democrat (Glassheim) Spread (D-R) Republican (Hoeven) Democrat (Glassheim) Spread (D-R)
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Ohio Adjusted: R +14.7
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Portman) Democrat (Strickland) Spread (D-R) Republican (Portman) Democrat (Strickland) Spread (D-R)
1 Marist 10/12 55 37 -18 57.2 39.9 -17.3
2 Emerson College 10/12 47 30 -17 54.7 39.0 -15.7
3 Baldwin Wallace U. 10/11 48 36 -12 56.5 44.5 -12.0
4 Luc.id/Times-Picayune 10/10 47 33 -14 56.0 42.0 -14.0
5 YouGov 10/7 49 38 -11 54.8 42.2 -12.6
6 PPP 10/6 51 36 -15 56.9 42.1 -14.8
7 Monmouth U. 10/4 54 39 -15 56.8 41.2 -15.6
8 Anzalone Liszt Grove 10/2 51 39 -12 55.5 39.6 -15.9
9 Quinnipiac 10/2 55 38 -17 58.2 41.9 -16.3
Oregon Adjusted: D +24.8
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Callahan) Democrat (Wyden) Spread (D-R) Republican (Callahan) Democrat (Wyden) Spread (D-R)
1 SurveyUSA 10/12 32 54 22 36.6 58.5 +21.9
2 Gravis 10/4 33 52 19 36.2 63.8 +27.6
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Pennsylvania Adjusted: D +0.4
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Toomey) Democrat (McGinty) Spread (D-R) Republican (Toomey) Democrat (McGinty) Spread (D-R)
1 Selzer 10/11 45 47 2 48.0 50.0 +2.0
2 Luc.id/Times-Picayune 10/10 40 39 -1 50.0 49.0 -1.0
3 Susquehanna / VSS 10/9 42 38 -4 48.1 44.0 -4.1
4 YouGov 10/7 42 42 0 50.3 48.7 -1.6
5 Marist 10/7 44 48 4 46.7 51.4 +4.7
6 Monmouth U. 10/3 46 46 0 48.8 48.2 -0.6
7 Quinnipiac 10/2 50 42 -8 53.2 45.9 -7.3
8 Franklin & Marshall 10/2 35 41 6 45.8 52.2 +6.4
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South Carolina Adjusted: R +22.4
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Tim Scott) Democrat (Dixon) Spread (D-R) Republican (Tim Scott) Democrat (Dixon) Spread (D-R)
1 Starboard Comms. 9/9 58 22 -36 62.0 34.0 -28.0
2 PPP 8/10 45 28 -17 54.9 38.1 -16.8
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South Dakota Adjusted: R +30.0
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Thune) Democrat (Williams) Spread (D-R) Republican (Thune) Democrat (Williams) Spread (D-R)
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Utah Adjusted: R +33.8
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Mike Lee) Democrat (Snow) Spread (D-R) Republican (Mike Lee) Democrat (Snow) Spread (D-R)
1 Monmouth U. 10/12 60 31 -29 63.3 33.7 -29.6
2 Dan Jones & Assocs. 9/9 60 23 -37 65.5 27.6 -37.9
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Washington Adjusted: D +17.5
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Vance) Democrat (Murray) Spread (D-R) Republican (Vance) Democrat (Murray) Spread (D-R)
1 Emerson College 9/27 41 48 6 44.5 52.2 +7.7
2 Insights West 9/14 25 46 21 38.5 59.5 +21.0
3 Elway 8/13 34 52 18 41.3 58.8 +17.5
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Wisconsin Adjusted: D +2.1
  Pollster Last day in field Republican (Johnson) Democrat (Feingold) Spread (D-R) Republican (Johnson) Democrat (Feingold) Spread (D-R)
1 Marquette 10/9 46 48 2 49.0 51.1 +2.1
2 YouGov 10/7 42 45 3 49.3 50.7 +1.4
3 Loras College 10/5 45 40 -5 51.9 45.6 -6.3
4 Gravis 10/4 41 53 12 42.0 58.1 +16.1
5 Emerson College 9/20 42 52 10 42.7 53.9 +11.2
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