Donald Trump's recent fall in the polls due to revelations about his history of sleaziness regarding women has not had much of a discernable impact in the polling for the U.S. Senate yet. Positive recent trends for Democrats have been seen in the senate race in Florida, and a recent Monmouth Poll in Missouri shows that the senate race there between Roy Blunt and Jason Kander is still close. However, polling has not yet indicated a bump in support for the Democratic candidates for senate in the closely watched races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and the Democrats' positions in Ohio and Iowa remain poor. Recent polling in Wisconsin also shows incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson's support surging, which is a troubling sign for Democrats in a race they thought would be an easy pickup.
Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +46.3 (Schumer 73.2 - Long 26.9)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Oregon - Wyden +27.6 (Wyden 63.8 - Callahan 36.2)
43 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 43.4)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.2 (Bennet 54.2 - Glenn 42.0)
Likely Dem
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +7.9 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 43.1)
Lean Dem
47 - Indiana - Bayh +4.7 (Bayh 49.3 - Young 44.7)
Toss Up
48 - Wisconsin - Feingold +2.1 (Feingold 51.1 - Johnson 49.0)
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +0.7 (McGinty 48.7 - Toomey 48.1)
51 - North Carolina - Burr +1.7 (Burr 49.2 - Ross 47.5)
50 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +2.4 (Ayotte 49.9 - Hassan 47.5)
49 - Missouri - Blunt +2.4 (Blunt 50.0 - Kander 47.7)
Lean GOP
48 - Florida - Rubio +3.4 (Rubio 51.3 - Murphy 47.9)
47 - Nevada - Heck +3.6 (Heck 48.5 - Cortez Masto 44.9)
Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.5 (Rand Paul 55.0 - Jim Gray 45.5)
Solid GOP
45 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
44 - Ohio - Portman +14.7 (Portman 56.7 - Strickland 42.0)
43 - Georgia - Isakson +14.9 (Isakson 54.7 - Barksdale 39.8)
42 - Kansas - Moran +16.1 (Moran 55.6 - Wiesner 39.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +16.9 (Grassley 57.7 - Judge 40.7)
40 - Arizona - McCain +18.0 (McCain 58.5 - Kirkpatrick 40.5)
39 - Arkansas - Boozman +18.2 (Boozman 54.4 - Eldridge 36.2)
38 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)37 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
36 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
35 - Utah - Lee +33.9 (Lee 63.2 - Snow 29.3)
34 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
33 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +35.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 10/6 | 49 | 9 | -40 | 52.5 | 20.5 | -32.0 |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | 10/2 | 50 | 12 | -38 | 56.2 | 17.2 | -39.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +18.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 52 | 36 | -15 | 53.7 | 39.6 | -14.1 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 53 | 35 | -18 | 58.5 | 40.5 | -18.0 |
| 3 | Marist | 9/8 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 59.2 | 40.9 | -18.3 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +18.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Hendrix College | 9/17 | 55 | 29 | -26 | 57.9 | 34.6 | -23.3 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +12.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/4 | 39 | 47 | 8 | 42.2 | 58.8 | +16.6 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/2 | 35 | 53 | 18 | 37.8 | 55.2 | +17.4 |
| 3 | PPP | 9/28 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 41.4 | 51.6 | +10.2 |
| 4 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 43 | 53 | 10 | 44.0 | 54.1 | +10.1 |
| 5 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 43 | 52 | 9 | 44.7 | 54.4 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Franklin & Marshall | 9/18 | 31 | 42 | 11 | 41.8 | 53.2 | +11.4 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +3.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Opinion Savvy | 10/11 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 52.2 | 47.9 | -4.3 |
| 2 | Marist | 10/5 | 48 | 46 | -2 | 49.7 | 48.4 | -1.3 |
| 3 | Tel Opinion Research | 10/4 | 49 | 41 | -8 | 51.3 | 47.8 | -3.5 |
| 4 | U. of North Florida | 10/4 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 52.2 | 45.9 | -6.3 |
| 5 | Gravis | 10/4 | 44 | 40 | -4 | 47.5 | 52.6 | +5.1 |
| 6 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 47 | 39 | -8 | 50.0 | 43.8 | -6.2 |
| 7 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 51.7 | 48.4 | -3.3 |
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| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +14.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | JMC Analytics | 9/22 | 41 | 28 | -13 | 54.1 | 42.0 | -12.1 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 34 | -21 | 59.7 | 39.4 | -20.3 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 9/18 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.3 | 38.7 | -16.6 |
| 4 | Opinion Savvy | 9/14 | 47 | 34 | -13 | 53.9 | 40.3 | -13.6 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 48 | 32 | -16 | 52.3 | 37.6 | -14.7 |
| 6 | Marist | 9/8 | 53 | 38 | -15 | 57.2 | 42.9 | -14.3 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +7.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SIU-Carbondale | 10/2 | 34 | 48 | 14 | 39.2 | 53.6 | +14.4 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 43.1 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Loras College | 9/16 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 47.4 | 51.0 | +3.6 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +4.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | 10/5 | 41 | 42 | 1 | 44.6 | 47.5 | +2.9 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 8/16 | 41 | 48 | 7 | 44.8 | 51.2 | +6.4 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +16.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Selzer | 10/6 | 53 | 36 | -17 | 57.5 | 40.5 | -17.0 |
| 2 | Loras College | 9/22 | 54 | 37 | -17 | 59.1 | 41.0 | -18.1 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 43 | -12 | 55.7 | 44.4 | -11.3 |
| 4 | Monmouth U. | 9/14 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 57.8 | 40.2 | -17.6 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +16.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 9/11 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.6 | 39.5 | -16.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +9.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage (Google C.S.) | 9/16 | 33 | 25 | -7 | 53.3 | 46.7 | -6.6 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | University of Maryland | 9/30 | 29 | 58 | 29 | 32.5 | 61.5 | +29.0 |
| 2 | Goucher College | 9/20 | 24 | 54 | 30 | 34.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +2.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/11 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 40 | 42 | 2 | 43.3 | 47.0 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 4 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | R | +3.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 10/11 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 48.5 | 43.6 | -4.9 |
| 2 | PPP | 10/11 | 39 | 43 | 4 | 52.4 | 47.6 | -4.8 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 45 | 41 | -5 | 48.5 | 44.9 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Hart Research Assocs. | 10/2 | 47 | 46 | -1 | 51.2 | 48.9 | -2.3 |
| 5 | Bendixen & Amandi | 9/29 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 51.0 | 49.0 | -2.0 |
| 6 | Suffolk U. | 9/29 | 38 | 35 | -3 | 47.4 | 43.7 | -3.7 |
| 7 | AR/Shaw (Fox News) | 9/20 | 43 | 36 | -7 | 47.2 | 39.8 | -7.4 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +2.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | PPP | 10/9 | 43 | 44 | 1 | 52.7 | 47.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | Suffolk U. | 10/5 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 51.4 | 44.7 | -6.7 |
| 3 | MassINC | 9/29 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 47.4 | 49.6 | +2.2 |
| 4 | GBA Strategies | 9/27 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 45.4 | 47.6 | +2.2 |
| 5 | ARG | 9/25 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.1 | +0.1 |
| 6 | Monmouth U. | 9/20 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +46.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marist | 9/23 | 24 | 70 | 46 | 26.7 | 73.4 | +46.7 |
| 2 | Siena | 9/15 | 23 | 69 | 46 | 26.9 | 73.2 | +46.3 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 8/30 | 23 | 60 | 37 | 28.4 | 66.7 | +38.3 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +1.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Suffolk U. | 10/12 | 40 | 36 | -3 | 49.2 | 45.3 | -3.9 |
| 2 | High Point U. | 10/6 | 47 | 42 | -5 | 49.5 | 44.5 | -5.0 |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | 10/3 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.6 | 47.5 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 49.2 | 49.9 | +0.7 |
| 5 | Selzer | 10/2 | 44 | 46 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 | Elon U. | 9/30 | 44 | 45 | 1 | 47.1 | 47.9 | +0.8 |
| 7 | PPP | 9/28 | 41 | 39 | -2 | 47.9 | 46.1 | -1.8 |
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| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +14.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Baldwin Wallace U. | 10/11 | 48 | 36 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 2 | YouGov | 10/7 | 49 | 38 | -11 | 54.8 | 42.2 | -12.6 |
| 3 | PPP | 10/6 | 51 | 36 | -15 | 56.9 | 42.1 | -14.8 |
| 4 | Monmouth U. | 10/4 | 54 | 39 | -15 | 56.8 | 41.2 | -15.6 |
| 5 | Anzalone Liszt Grove | 10/2 | 51 | 39 | -12 | 55.5 | 39.6 | -15.9 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 55 | 38 | -17 | 58.2 | 41.9 | -16.3 |
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| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +27.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/4 | 33 | 52 | 19 | 36.2 | 63.8 | +27.6 |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +0.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Selzer | 10/11 | 45 | 47 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Susquehanna / VSS | 10/9 | 42 | 38 | -4 | 48.1 | 44.0 | -4.1 |
| 3 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 50.3 | 48.7 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Marist | 10/7 | 44 | 48 | 4 | 46.7 | 51.4 | +4.7 |
| 5 | Monmouth U. | 10/3 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48.8 | 48.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 50 | 42 | -8 | 53.2 | 45.9 | -7.3 |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall | 10/2 | 35 | 41 | 6 | 45.8 | 52.2 | +6.4 |
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| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +33.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 9/9 | 60 | 23 | -37 | 65.5 | 27.6 | -37.9 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/21 | 51 | 21 | -30 | 60.9 | 31.1 | -29.8 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +17.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/27 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 44.5 | 52.2 | +7.7 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 25 | 46 | 21 | 38.5 | 59.5 | +21.0 |
| 3 | Elway | 8/13 | 34 | 52 | 18 | 41.3 | 58.8 | +17.5 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +2.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marquette | 10/9 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 49.0 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
| 2 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 49.3 | 50.7 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Loras College | 10/5 | 45 | 40 | -5 | 51.9 | 45.6 | -6.3 |
| 4 | Gravis | 10/4 | 41 | 53 | 12 | 42.0 | 58.1 | +16.1 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 42 | 52 | 10 | 42.7 | 53.9 | +11.2 |
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