Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +46.3 (Schumer 73.2 - Long 26.9)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Oregon - Wyden +27.6 (Wyden 63.8 - Callahan 36.2)
43 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 43.4)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.2 (Bennet 54.2 - Glenn 42.0)
Likely Dem
46 - Wisconsin - Feingold +9.0 (Feingold 52.3 - Johnson 43.3)
47 - Illinois - Duckworth +7.9 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 43.1)
Lean Dem
48 - Indiana - Bayh +4.7 (Bayh 49.3 - Young 44.7)
Toss Up
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +1.8 (McGinty 48.7 - Toomey 47.0)
51 - North Carolina - Burr +0.1 (Burr 48.0 - Ross 47.9)
50 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +2.2 (Ayotte 49.8 - Hassan 47.6)
Lean GOP
49 - Nevada - Heck +3.2 (Heck 48.5 - Cortez Masto 45.3)
48 - Missouri - Blunt +3.5 (Blunt 51.0 - Kander 47.5)
47 - Florida - Rubio +4.2 (Rubio 49.8 - Murphy 45.7)
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.5 (Rand Paul 55.0 - Jim Gray 45.5)
Solid GOP
45 - Iowa - Grassley +12.5 (Grassley 56.1 - Judge 43.6)
44 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
43 - Ohio - Portman +14.1 (Portman 56.1 - Strickland 42.0)
42 - Georgia - Isakson +14.9 (Isakson 54.7 - Barksdale 39.8)
41 - Kansas - Moran +16.1 (Moran 55.6 - Wiesner 39.5)
40 - Arizona - McCain +18.0 (McCain 58.5 - Kirkpatrick 40.5)
39 - Arkansas - Boozman +18.2 (Boozman 54.4 - Eldridge 36.2)
38 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)37 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
36 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
35 - Alaska - Murkowski +32.0 (Murkowski 52.5 - Metcalfe 20.5)
34 - Utah - Lee +33.9 (Lee 63.2 - Snow 29.3)
33 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +32.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 10/6 | 49 | 9 | -40 | 52.5 | 20.5 | -32.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +18.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 52 | 36 | -15 | 53.7 | 39.6 | -14.1 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 53 | 35 | -18 | 58.5 | 40.5 | -18.0 |
| 3 | Marist | 9/8 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 59.2 | 40.9 | -18.3 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +18.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Hendrix College | 9/17 | 55 | 29 | -26 | 57.9 | 34.6 | -23.3 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +12.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/4 | 39 | 47 | 8 | 42.2 | 58.8 | +16.6 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/2 | 35 | 53 | 18 | 37.8 | 55.2 | +17.4 |
| 3 | PPP | 9/28 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 41.4 | 51.6 | +10.2 |
| 4 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 43 | 53 | 10 | 44.0 | 54.1 | +10.1 |
| 5 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 43 | 52 | 9 | 44.7 | 54.4 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Franklin & Marshall | 9/18 | 31 | 42 | 11 | 41.8 | 53.2 | +11.4 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +4.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marist | 10/5 | 48 | 46 | -2 | 49.7 | 48.4 | -1.3 |
| 2 | Gravis | 10/4 | 44 | 40 | -4 | 47.5 | 52.6 | +5.1 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 47 | 39 | -8 | 50.0 | 43.8 | -6.2 |
| 4 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 51.7 | 48.4 | -3.3 |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon | 9/29 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 49.5 | 43.5 | -6.0 |
| 6 | Insider Adv. / Opinion Sa | 9/29 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 52.5 | 47.6 | -4.9 |
| 7 | PPP | 9/28 | 42 | 35 | -7 | 49.4 | 42.6 | -6.8 |
| 8 | Suffolk U. | 9/21 | 43 | 34 | -9 | 52.9 | 43.2 | -9.7 |
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| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +14.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | JMC Analytics | 9/22 | 41 | 28 | -13 | 54.1 | 42.0 | -12.1 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 34 | -21 | 59.7 | 39.4 | -20.3 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 9/18 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.3 | 38.7 | -16.6 |
| 4 | Insider Adv. / Opinion Sa | 9/14 | 47 | 34 | -13 | 53.9 | 40.3 | -13.6 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 48 | 32 | -16 | 52.3 | 37.6 | -14.7 |
| 6 | Marist | 9/8 | 53 | 38 | -15 | 57.2 | 42.9 | -14.3 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +7.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SIU-Carbondale | 10/2 | 34 | 48 | 14 | 39.2 | 53.6 | +14.4 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 43.1 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Loras College | 9/16 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 47.4 | 51.0 | +3.6 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +4.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | 10/5 | 41 | 42 | 1 | 44.6 | 47.5 | +2.9 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 8/16 | 41 | 48 | 7 | 44.8 | 51.2 | +6.4 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +12.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Loras College | 9/22 | 54 | 37 | -17 | 59.1 | 41.0 | -18.1 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 43 | -12 | 55.7 | 44.4 | -11.3 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 9/14 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 57.8 | 40.2 | -17.6 |
| 4 | RABA Research | 9/8 | 50 | 37 | -13 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/1 | 51 | 40 | -11 | 53.4 | 43.7 | -9.7 |
| 6 | PPP | 8/31 | 49 | 43 | -6 | 52.9 | 47.1 | -5.8 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +16.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 9/11 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.6 | 39.5 | -16.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +9.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage (Google C.S.) | 9/16 | 33 | 25 | -7 | 53.3 | 46.7 | -6.6 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | University of Maryland | 9/30 | 29 | 58 | 29 | 32.5 | 61.5 | +29.0 |
| 2 | Goucher College | 9/20 | 24 | 54 | 30 | 34.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +3.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 40 | 42 | 2 | 43.3 | 47.0 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 3 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
| 4 | Monmouth U. | 8/22 | 48 | 43 | -5 | 51.8 | 46.2 | -5.6 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | R | +3.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 45 | 41 | -5 | 48.5 | 44.9 | -3.6 |
| 2 | Hart Research Assocs. | 10/2 | 47 | 46 | -1 | 51.2 | 48.9 | -2.3 |
| 3 | Bendixen & Amandi | 9/29 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 51.0 | 49.0 | -2.0 |
| 4 | Suffolk U. | 9/29 | 38 | 35 | -3 | 47.4 | 43.7 | -3.7 |
| 5 | AR/Shaw (Fox News) | 9/20 | 43 | 36 | -7 | 47.2 | 39.8 | -7.4 |
| 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosn | 9/19 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 53.7 | 45.3 | -8.4 |
| 7 | Rasmussen | 9/18 | 44 | 40 | -4 | 48.5 | 46.5 | -2.0 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +2.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Suffolk U. | 10/5 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 51.4 | 44.7 | -6.7 |
| 2 | MassINC | 9/29 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 47.4 | 49.6 | +2.2 |
| 3 | GBA Strategies | 9/27 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 45.4 | 47.6 | +2.2 |
| 4 | ARG | 9/25 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.1 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Monmouth U. | 9/20 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +46.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marist | 9/23 | 24 | 70 | 46 | 26.7 | 73.4 | +46.7 |
| 2 | Siena | 9/15 | 23 | 69 | 46 | 26.9 | 73.2 | +46.3 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 8/30 | 23 | 60 | 37 | 28.4 | 66.7 | +38.3 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +0.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/3 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.6 | 47.5 | -2.1 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 49.2 | 49.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Selzer | 10/2 | 44 | 46 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 4 | Elon U. | 9/30 | 44 | 45 | 1 | 47.1 | 47.9 | +0.8 |
| 5 | PPP | 9/28 | 41 | 39 | -2 | 47.9 | 46.1 | -1.8 |
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| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +14.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | YouGov | 10/7 | 49 | 38 | -11 | 54.8 | 42.2 | -12.6 |
| 2 | PPP | 10/6 | 51 | 36 | -15 | 56.9 | 42.1 | -14.8 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/4 | 54 | 39 | -15 | 56.8 | 41.2 | -15.6 |
| 4 | Anzalone Liszt Grove | 10/2 | 51 | 39 | -12 | 55.5 | 39.6 | -15.9 |
| 5 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 55 | 38 | -17 | 58.2 | 41.9 | -16.3 |
| 6 | Gravis | 9/23 | 44 | 36 | -8 | 48.5 | 51.6 | +3.1 |
| 7 | TargetSmart | 9/22 | 47 | 32 | -15 | 55.5 | 40.5 | -15.0 |
| 8 | AR/Shaw (Fox News) | 9/20 | 51 | 37 | -14 | 56.7 | 42.3 | -14.4 |
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| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +27.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +1.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 50.3 | 48.7 | -1.6 |
| 2 | Marist | 10/7 | 44 | 48 | 4 | 46.7 | 51.4 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/3 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48.8 | 48.2 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Quinnipiac | 10/2 | 50 | 42 | -8 | 53.2 | 45.9 | -7.3 |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall | 10/2 | 35 | 41 | 6 | 45.8 | 52.2 | +6.4 |
| 6 | PPP | 9/28 | 35 | 40 | 5 | 42.9 | 48.1 | +5.2 |
| 7 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 46 | 49 | 3 | 47.0 | 50.1 | +3.1 |
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| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +33.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 9/9 | 60 | 23 | -37 | 65.5 | 27.6 | -37.9 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/21 | 51 | 21 | -30 | 60.9 | 31.1 | -29.8 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +17.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/27 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 44.5 | 52.2 | +7.7 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 25 | 46 | 21 | 38.5 | 59.5 | +21.0 |
| 3 | Elway | 8/13 | 34 | 52 | 18 | 41.3 | 58.8 | +17.5 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +9.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 49.3 | 50.7 | +1.4 |
| 2 | Gravis | 10/4 | 41 | 53 | 12 | 42.0 | 58.1 | +16.1 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 42 | 52 | 10 | 42.7 | 53.9 | +11.2 |
| 4 | Marquette | 9/18 | 39 | 44 | 5 | 44.0 | 49.1 | +5.1 |
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