Every Senate Race in One Chart - October 28: Democrats 51 seats, Republicans 49 seats

Jason Kander is now leading Roy Blunt in my senate predictions. A new Mason-Dixon poll came out last night showing "a virtual tie" in the race, and it was this poll combined with other recent Kander-friendly polls and the clearing away of months-old Blunt-friendly polls that put Kander on top for now. If the races go as predicted, Democrats will have 51 senate seats and will not have to rely on a Hillary Clinton victory for the senate majority (though they'll likely have it anyways).

Senate Race Ratings: 
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +43.0 (Schumer 71.3 - Long 28.3)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
43 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.7 (Murray 58.4 - Vance 40.7)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +14.3 (Bennet 55.0 - Glenn 40.7)

Likely Dem 
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +10.1 (Duckworth 53.0 - Kirk 42.9)
47 - Wisconsin - Feingold +7.4 (Feingold 52.7 - Johnson 45.3)

Lean Dem
48 - Indiana - Bayh +4.8 (Bayh 49.7 - Young 45.0)

Toss Up 
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +1.5 (McGinty 50.0 - Toomey 48.5)
50 - Nevada - Cortez Masto +0.9 (Cortez Masto 48.8 - Heck 47.9)
51 - Missouri - Kander +0.8 (Kander 49.1 - Blunt 48.2)
49 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +0.4 (Ayotte 47.6 - Hassan 47.3)
48 - North Carolina - Burr +1.7 (Burr 50.2 - Ross 48.5)

Lean GOP
47 - Florida - Rubio +5.7 (Rubio 52.0 - Murphy 46.4)

Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.1 (Rand Paul 54.8 - Jim Gray 45.7)
45 - Arizona - McCain +10.3 (McCain 52.0 - Kirkpatrick 41.7)
44 - Georgia - Isakson +11.3 (Isakson 54.6 - Barksdale 43.3)

Solid GOP 
43 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
42 - Arkansas - Boozman +14.4 (Boozman 52.9 - Eldridge 38.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +15.1 (Grassley 57.5 - Judge 42.4)
40 - Ohio - Portman +14.6 (Portman 55.7 - Strickland 41.1)
39 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)
38 - Kansas - Moran +25.1 (Moran 60.1 - Wiesner 35.0)
37 - South Dakota - Thune +29 (Thune 64.5 - Williams 35.5)
36 - Utah - Lee +32.3 (Lee 63.3 - Snow 31.0)
35 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
34 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
33 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
32 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
31 - Alabama - Shelby +44.3 (Shelby 71.9 - Crumpton 27.5)

Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:

Alabama						Adjusted:	R	+44.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Shelby)	Democrat (Crumpton)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Shelby)	Democrat (Crumpton)	Spread (D-R)
1	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/20	71	26	-45	72	28	-44.3
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Alaska						Adjusted:	R	+35.5
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Murkowski)	Democrat (Metcalfe)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Murkowski)	Democrat (Metcalfe)	Spread (D-R)
1	Moore	10/6	49	9	-40	52.5	20.5	-32.0
2	Alaska Survey Research	10/2	50	12	-38	56.2	17.2	-39.0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Arizona						Adjusted:	R	+10.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (McCain)	Democrat (Kirkpatrick)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (McCain)	Democrat (Kirkpatrick)	Spread (D-R)
1	Monmouth U.	10/24	50	40	-10	52.3	41.7	-10.6
2	Ipsos	10/18	48	38	-10	53.1	43.0	-10.1
3	SurveyMonkey	10/16	48	45	-3	51.0	48.0	-3.0
4	ASU (Morrison/Cronkite)	10/15	52	40	-12	52.0	39.6	-12.4
5	HighGround (AZ)	10/14	45	35	-10	51.0	41.0	-10.0
6
7
8
9
Arkansas						Adjusted:	R	+14.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Boozman)	Democrat (Eldridge)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Boozman)	Democrat (Eldridge)	Spread (D-R)
1	Hendrix College	10/21	52	34	-18	54.8	39.3	-15.5
2	Emerson College	9/13	44	30	-15	51.0	37.8	-13.2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Colorado						Adjusted:	D	+14.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Glenn)	Democrat (Bennet)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Glenn)	Democrat (Bennet)	Spread (D-R)
1	Quinnipiac	10/16	38	56	18	40.7	59.4	+18.7
2	SurveyMonkey	10/16	42	52	10	45.0	55.0	+10.0
3	Magellan	10/13	32	47	15	37.7	53.3	+15.6
4	Gravis	10/13	38	48	10	40.7	58.3	+17.6
5	Monmouth U.	10/2	35	53	18	37.8	55.2	+17.4
6	PPP	9/28	34	44	10	41.4	51.6	+10.2
7	Opinion Research (CNN)	9/25	43	53	10	44.0	54.1	+10.1
8
9
Connecticut						Adjusted:	D	+26.5
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Carter)	Democrat (Blumenthal)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Carter)	Democrat (Blumenthal)	Spread (D-R)
1	Emerson College	9/5	33	54	21	38.9	61.2	+22.3
2	Quinnipiac	6/5	30	60	30	33.2	63.9	+30.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Florida						Adjusted:	R	+5.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Rubio)	Democrat (Murphy)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Rubio)	Democrat (Murphy)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	49	43	-6	52.0	48.0	-4.0
2	St. Leo U.	10/26	53	47	-6	53.0	47.0	-6.0
3	PPP	10/26	46	46	0	52.7	48.4	-4.3
4	Dixie Strategies	10/26	49	43	-6	50.9	45.3	-5.6
5	U. of North Florida	10/25	49	43	-6	52.7	46.4	-6.3
6	Selzer	10/24	51	41	-10	53.5	43.5	-10.0
7	SurveyUSA	10/24	45	41	-4	49.1	45.0	-4.1
8	YouGov	10/22	44	42	-2	48.8	45.2	-3.6
9	Florida Atlantic U.	10/23	46	42	-4	51.8	48.3	-3.5
Georgia						Adjusted:	R	+11.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Isakson)	Democrat (Barksdale)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Isakson)	Democrat (Barksdale)	Spread (D-R)
1	Quinnipiac	10/26	54	40	-14	56.7	43.4	-13.3
2	Abt SRBI Inc.	10/20	47	32	-15	52.2	36.5	-15.7
3	Opinion Savvy	10/20	51	42	-9	53.4	43.3	-10.1
4	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/20	59	36	-22	59.7	38.2	-21.5
5	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/18	49	39	-10	55.5	45.5	-10.0
6	SurveyMonkey	10/16	50	46	-4	52.0	48.0	-4.0
7	Landmark	10/12	50	37	-14	54.6	40.5	-14.1
8
9
Illinois						Adjusted:	D	+10.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Kirk)	Democrat (Duckworth)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Kirk)	Democrat (Duckworth)	Spread (D-R)
1	Victory (McCulloch)	10/18	39	50	11	42.9	53.9	+11.0
2	GS Strategy Group	10/5	37	41	4	41.0	53.0	+12.0
3	SIU-Carbondale	10/2	34	48	14	39.2	53.6	+14.4
4	Normington Petts	9/29	37	46	9	50.1	49.9	-0.2
5	Emerson College	9/20	39	41	2	43.1	46.1	+3.0
6
7
8
9
Indiana						Adjusted:	D	+4.8
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Todd Young)	Democrat (Evan Bayh)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Todd Young)	Democrat (Evan Bayh)	Spread (D-R)
1	Gravis	10/24	37	39	2	45.0	48.1	+3.1
2	Ball State U.	10/16	43	49	6	46.0	52.0	+6.0
3	Monmouth U.	10/13	42	48	6	44.3	49.7	+5.4
4	Pub. Op. Strategies (POS)	10/11	40	39	-1	42.3	49.7	+7.4
5	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/10	43	46	3	48.5	51.5	+3.0
6
7
8
9
Iowa						Adjusted:	R	+15.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Grassley)	Democrat (Judge)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Grassley)	Democrat (Judge)	Spread (D-R)
1	Quinnipiac	10/26	56	38	-18	58.2	40.9	-17.3
2	SurveyMonkey	10/16	56	40	-16	58.5	42.5	-16.0
3	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	56	41	-15	56.6	42.4	-14.2
4	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/10	51	39	-12	56.5	44.5	-12.0
5	Selzer	10/6	53	36	-17	57.5	40.5	-17.0
6
7
8
9
Kansas						Adjusted:	R	+25.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Moran)	Democrat (Wiesner)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Moran)	Democrat (Wiesner)	Spread (D-R)
1	SurveyUSA	10/15	56	31	-25	60.1	35.0	-25.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Kentucky						Adjusted:	R	+9.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Rand Paul)	Democrat (Jim Gray)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Rand Paul)	Democrat (Jim Gray)	Spread (D-R)
1	Babbage (Google C.S.)	10/15	33	27	-7	53.0	47.1	-5.9
2	Harper	8/1	50	38	-12	56.7	44.4	-12.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Louisiana						Adjusted:	R	+13.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Kennedy)	Democrat (Campbell)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Kennedy)	Democrat (Campbell)	Spread (D-R)
1	Remington	8/30	51	27	-24	56.5	43.5	-13.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Maryland						Adjusted:	D	+30.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Szeliga)	Democrat (Van Hollen)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Szeliga)	Democrat (Van Hollen)	Spread (D-R)
1	University of Maryland	9/30	29	58	29	32.5	61.5	+29.0
2	Goucher College	9/20	24	54	30	34.0	64.0	+30.0
3	OpinionWorks	8/30	26	55	29	35.3	64.8	+29.5
4
5
6
7
8
9
Missouri						Adjusted:	D	+0.8
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Blunt)	Democrat (Kander)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Blunt)	Democrat (Kander)	Spread (D-R)
1	Mason-Dixon	10/26	47	46	-1	49.0	49.0	+0.0
2	Emerson College	10/19	44	44	0	47.4	49.1	+1.7
3	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	44	51	7	45.0	52.7	+7.7
4	Monmouth U.	10/11	46	44	-2	49.8	47.2	-2.6
5
6
7
8
9
Nevada						Adjusted:	D	+0.9
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Heck)	Democrat (Cortez Masto)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Heck)	Democrat (Cortez Masto)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	40	44	4	46.0	52.0	+6.0
2	Marist	10/24	49	42	-7	51.2	44.9	-6.3
3	Bendixen & Amandi	10/23	44	45	1	48.5	49.5	+1.0
4	Monmouth U.	10/17	45	42	-3	47.3	43.7	-3.6
5	SurveyMonkey	10/16	48	47	-1	50.5	49.5	-1.0
6	Opinion Research (CNN)	10/15	45	52	7	45.5	52.6	+7.1
7	YouGov	10/14	39	39	0	48.8	47.2	-1.6
8	JMC Analytics	10/13	41	47	6	41.4	48.1	+6.7
9
New Hampshire						Adjusted:	R	+0.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Ayotte)	Democrat (Hassan)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Ayotte)	Democrat (Hassan)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	42	46	4	47.0	53.0	+6.0
2	Monmouth U.	10/25	46	46	0	47.3	46.7	-0.6
3	Marist	10/24	48	47	-1	48.7	48.4	-0.3
4	YouGov	10/21	48	44	-4	50.8	45.2	-5.6
5	Emerson College	10/19	45	45	0	44.7	45.9	+1.2
6	UNH	10/17	39	48	9	44.4	51.7	+7.3
7	SurveyMonkey	10/16	42	47	5	42.5	47.5	+5.0
8	MassINC	10/12	47	47	0	49.4	49.6	+0.2
9	UMass Lowell	10/11	45	44	-1	48.0	47.1	-0.9
New York						Adjusted:	D	+43.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Long)	Democrat (Schumer)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Long)	Democrat (Schumer)	Spread (D-R)
1	Siena	10/17	27	66	39	29.9	69.2	+39.3
2	Marist	9/23	24	70	46	26.7	73.4	+46.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
North Carolina						Adjusted:	R	+1.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Burr)	Democrat (Ross)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Burr)	Democrat (Ross)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	48	43	-5	51.5	48.5	-3.0
2	Quinnipiac	10/26	48	47	-1	50.2	49.9	-0.3
3	Siena	10/23	46	47	1	49.4	50.7	+1.3
4	Monmouth U.	10/23	49	43	-6	51.8	45.2	-6.6
5	PPP	10/22	42	41	-1	47.4	46.6	-0.8
6	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/18	46	44	-2	51.0	49.0	-2.0
7	National Research Inc.	10/17	46	39	-7	50.3	43.5	-6.8
8	SurveyUSA	10/16	45	43	-2	48.1	46.0	-2.1
9	SurveyMonkey	10/16	42	48	6	43.5	49.5	+6.0
North Dakota						Adjusted:	R	+35.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Hoeven)	Democrat (Glassheim)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Hoeven)	Democrat (Glassheim)	Spread (D-R)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ohio						Adjusted:	R	+14.6
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Portman)	Democrat (Strickland)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Portman)	Democrat (Strickland)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	49	41	-8	53.0	47.0	-6.0
2	Suffolk U.	10/19	46	31	-15	54.7	39.0	-15.7
3	Quinnipiac	10/16	54	41	-13	55.7	43.4	-12.3
4	SurveyMonkey	10/16	56	39	-17	58.5	41.5	-17.0
5	Opinion Research (CNN)	10/15	56	40	-16	57.0	41.1	-15.9
6	Marist	10/12	55	37	-18	57.2	39.9	-17.3
7	Emerson College	10/12	47	30	-17	54.7	39.0	-15.7
8
9
Oregon						Adjusted:	D	+24.8
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Callahan)	Democrat (Wyden)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Callahan)	Democrat (Wyden)	Spread (D-R)
1	SurveyUSA	10/12	32	54	22	36.6	58.5	+21.9
2	Gravis	10/4	33	52	19	36.2	63.8	+27.6
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Pennsylvania						Adjusted:	D	+1.5
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Toomey)	Democrat (McGinty)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Toomey)	Democrat (McGinty)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	40	47	7	45.5	54.5	+9.0
2	Siena	10/25	44	47	3	48.4	51.7	+3.3
3	Emerson College	10/19	46	43	-3	48.5	46.6	-1.9
4	Quinnipiac	10/16	49	45	-4	51.7	48.4	-3.3
5	SurveyMonkey	10/16	47	47	0	50.0	50.0	+0.0
6	Selzer	10/11	45	47	2	48.0	50.0	+2.0
7	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/10	44	44	0	50.0	50.0	+0.0
8
9
South Carolina						Adjusted:	R	+22.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Tim Scott)	Democrat (Dixon)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Tim Scott)	Democrat (Dixon)	Spread (D-R)
1	Starboard Comms.	9/9	58	22	-36	62.0	34.0	-28.0
2	PPP	8/10	45	28	-17	54.9	38.1	-16.8
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
South Dakota						Adjusted:	R	+29.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Thune)	Democrat (Williams)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Thune)	Democrat (Williams)	Spread (D-R)
1	Remington	10/21	57	36	-21	60.5	39.5	-21.0
2	Mason-Dixon	10/20	65	27	-38	68.5	31.5	-37.0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Utah						Adjusted:	R	+32.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Mike Lee)	Democrat (Snow)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Mike Lee)	Democrat (Snow)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/24	56	26	-30	59.0	31.0	-28.0
2	Monmouth U.	10/12	60	31	-29	63.3	33.7	-29.6
3	Dan Jones & Assocs.	9/9	60	23	-37	65.5	27.6	-37.9
4
5
6
7
8
9
Washington						Adjusted:	D	+17.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Vance)	Democrat (Murray)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Vance)	Democrat (Murray)	Spread (D-R)
1	Elway	10/22	34	58	24	38.3	61.8	+23.5
2	YouGov	10/13	39	55	16	42.8	57.2	+14.4
3	Emerson College	9/27	41	48	6	44.5	52.2	+7.7
4	Insights West	9/14	25	46	21	38.5	59.5	+21.0
5
6
7
8
9
Wisconsin						Adjusted:	D	+7.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Johnson)	Democrat (Feingold)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Johnson)	Democrat (Feingold)	Spread (D-R)
1	Wilson Perkins Allen	10/20	42	45	3	45.1	54.9	+9.8
2	PPP	10/19	41	47	6	49.9	50.1	+0.2
3	Monmouth U.	10/18	44	52	8	45.3	52.7	+7.4
4	Saint Norbert	10/16	42	53	11	43.7	54.3	+10.7
5	SurveyMonkey	10/16	46	51	5	47.5	52.5	+5.0
6	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	39	58	19	40.1	59.7	+19.7
7	Marquette	10/9	46	48	2	49.0	51.1	+2.1
8
9