It finally happened. For the first time since September 13, my model now shows Democrats capturing 50 seats, which would be enough to control the Senate assuming a Hillary Clinton victory (which is extremely likely, according to all the polls). The change came from Nevada, where two recent non-partisan media polls show Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto with a slim lead over Republican Joe Heck.
The change comes at a moment when in Florida, Republican incumbent senator and one-time presidential candidate Marco Rubio appears to be pulling away from Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in the polls. These polls coincide with the decision by senators Chuck Schumer and Jon Tester of the DSCC to pull funding out of the race to concentrate on other senate races, a decision recently criticized by Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, minority leader Sen. Harry Reid, and former president Bill Clinton. This polling suggests that maybe this was the right move by Schumer (though he himself is sitting on $20 million that he won't need; see chart below).
Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +43.0 (Schumer 71.3 - Long 28.3)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
43 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
44 - Washington - Murray +21.0 (Murray 59.5 - Vance 38.5)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +14.3 (Bennet 55.0 - Glenn 40.7)
Likely Dem
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +10.1 (Duckworth 53.0 - Kirk 42.9)
47 - Wisconsin - Feingold +7.4 (Feingold 52.7 - Johnson 45.3)
Lean Dem
48 - Indiana - Bayh +4.8 (Bayh 49.7 - Young 45.0)
Toss Up
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +1.5 (McGinty 50.0 - Toomey 48.5)
50 - Nevada - Cortez Masto +0.8 (Cortez Masto 48.1 - Heck 47.3)
50 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +0.3 (Ayotte 47.3 - Hassan 47.1)
49 - Missouri - Blunt +0.7 (Blunt 49.8 - Kander 49.1)
48 - North Carolina - Burr +1.3 (Burr 49.4 - Ross 48.1)
Lean GOP
none
Likely GOP
47 - Florida - Rubio +6.5 (Rubio 51.8 - Murphy 45.3)
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.1 (Rand Paul 54.8 - Jim Gray 45.7)
Solid GOP
45 - Arizona - McCain +10.3 (McCain 52.0 - Kirkpatrick 41.7)
44 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
43 - Georgia - Isakson +13.1 (Isakson 54.3 - Barksdale 41.2)
42 - Arkansas - Boozman +14.4 (Boozman 52.9 - Eldridge 38.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +14.6 (Grassley 57.1 - Judge 42.5)
40 - Ohio - Portman +15.0 (Portman 56.5 - Strickland 41.5)
39 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)
38 - Kansas - Moran +25.1 (Moran 60.1 - Wiesner 35.0)
37 - South Dakota - Thune +29 (Thune 64.5 - Williams 35.5)
36 - Utah - Lee +32.3 (Lee 63.3 - Snow 31.0)
35 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
34 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
33 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
32 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
31 - Alabama - Shelby +44.3 (Shelby 71.9 - Crumpton 27.5)
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +44.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/20 | 71 | 26 | -45 | 72 | 28 | -44.3 |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +35.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 10/6 | 49 | 9 | -40 | 52.5 | 20.5 | -32.0 |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | 10/2 | 50 | 12 | -38 | 56.2 | 17.2 | -39.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +10.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/24 | 50 | 40 | -10 | 52.3 | 41.7 | -10.6 |
| 2 | Ipsos | 10/18 | 48 | 38 | -10 | 53.1 | 43.0 | -10.1 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 48 | 45 | -3 | 51.0 | 48.0 | -3.0 |
| 4 | ASU (Morrison/Cronkite) | 10/15 | 52 | 40 | -12 | 52.0 | 39.6 | -12.4 |
| 5 | HighGround (AZ) | 10/14 | 45 | 35 | -10 | 51.0 | 41.0 | -10.0 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +14.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Hendrix College | 10/21 | 52 | 34 | -18 | 54.8 | 39.3 | -15.5 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +14.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 38 | 56 | 18 | 40.7 | 59.4 | +18.7 |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 52 | 10 | 45.0 | 55.0 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Magellan | 10/13 | 32 | 47 | 15 | 37.7 | 53.3 | +15.6 |
| 4 | Gravis | 10/13 | 38 | 48 | 10 | 40.7 | 58.3 | +17.6 |
| 5 | Monmouth U. | 10/2 | 35 | 53 | 18 | 37.8 | 55.2 | +17.4 |
| 6 | PPP | 9/28 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 41.4 | 51.6 | +10.2 |
| 7 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 43 | 53 | 10 | 44.0 | 54.1 | +10.1 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +6.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Selzer | 10/24 | 51 | 41 | -10 | 53.5 | 43.5 | -10.0 |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | 10/24 | 45 | 41 | -4 | 49.1 | 45.0 | -4.1 |
| 3 | YouGov | 10/22 | 44 | 42 | -2 | 48.8 | 45.2 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Florida Atlantic U. | 10/23 | 46 | 42 | -4 | 51.8 | 48.3 | -3.5 |
| 5 | Opinion Savvy | 10/20 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 50.4 | 49.7 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Rasmussen | 10/20 | 47 | 39 | -8 | 53.0 | 47.0 | -6.0 |
| 7 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/20 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 58.8 | 40.2 | -18.6 |
| 8 | Assoc. Ind. Of Florida | 10/19 | 43 | 38 | -5 | 45.8 | 46.3 | +0.5 |
| 9 | Cherry Comms. | 10/19 | 51 | 37 | -14 | 53.7 | 45.3 | -8.4 |
| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +13.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Abt SRBI Inc. | 10/20 | 47 | 32 | -15 | 52.2 | 36.5 | -15.7 |
| 2 | Opinion Savvy | 10/20 | 51 | 42 | -9 | 53.4 | 43.3 | -10.1 |
| 3 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/20 | 59 | 36 | -22 | 59.7 | 38.2 | -21.5 |
| 4 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/18 | 49 | 39 | -10 | 55.5 | 45.5 | -10.0 |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 50 | 46 | -4 | 52.0 | 48.0 | -4.0 |
| 6 | Landmark | 10/12 | 50 | 37 | -14 | 54.6 | 40.5 | -14.1 |
| 7 | JMC Analytics | 9/22 | 41 | 28 | -13 | 54.1 | 42.0 | -12.1 |
| 8 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 34 | -21 | 59.7 | 39.4 | -20.3 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +10.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Victory (McCulloch) | 10/18 | 39 | 50 | 11 | 42.9 | 53.9 | +11.0 |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | 10/5 | 37 | 41 | 4 | 41.0 | 53.0 | +12.0 |
| 3 | SIU-Carbondale | 10/2 | 34 | 48 | 14 | 39.2 | 53.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | Normington Petts | 9/29 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 50.1 | 49.9 | -0.2 |
| 5 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 43.1 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +4.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Gravis | 10/24 | 37 | 39 | 2 | 45.0 | 48.1 | +3.1 |
| 2 | Ball State U. | 10/16 | 43 | 49 | 6 | 46.0 | 52.0 | +6.0 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/13 | 42 | 48 | 6 | 44.3 | 49.7 | +5.4 |
| 4 | Pub. Op. Strategies (POS) | 10/11 | 40 | 39 | -1 | 42.3 | 49.7 | +7.4 |
| 5 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 43 | 46 | 3 | 48.5 | 51.5 | +3.0 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +14.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 56 | 40 | -16 | 58.5 | 42.5 | -16.0 |
| 2 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 56 | 41 | -15 | 56.6 | 42.4 | -14.2 |
| 3 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 51 | 39 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 4 | Selzer | 10/6 | 53 | 36 | -17 | 57.5 | 40.5 | -17.0 |
| 5 | Loras College | 9/22 | 54 | 37 | -17 | 59.1 | 41.0 | -18.1 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 43 | -12 | 55.7 | 44.4 | -11.3 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +25.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/15 | 56 | 31 | -25 | 60.1 | 35.0 | -25.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +9.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage (Google C.S.) | 10/15 | 33 | 27 | -7 | 53.0 | 47.1 | -5.9 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | University of Maryland | 9/30 | 29 | 58 | 29 | 32.5 | 61.5 | +29.0 |
| 2 | Goucher College | 9/20 | 24 | 54 | 30 | 34.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +0.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 47.4 | 49.1 | +1.7 |
| 2 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 44 | 51 | 7 | 45.0 | 52.7 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/11 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 4 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 5 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | D | +0.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Bendixen & Amandi | 10/23 | 44 | 45 | 1 | 48.5 | 49.5 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Rasmussen | 10/22 | 41 | 43 | 2 | 44.0 | 48.0 | +4.0 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/17 | 45 | 42 | -3 | 47.3 | 43.7 | -3.6 |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 50.5 | 49.5 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 45 | 52 | 7 | 45.5 | 52.6 | +7.1 |
| 6 | YouGov | 10/14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 48.8 | 47.2 | -1.6 |
| 7 | JMC Analytics | 10/13 | 41 | 47 | 6 | 41.4 | 48.1 | +6.7 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +0.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/25 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 47.3 | 46.7 | -0.6 |
| 2 | YouGov | 10/21 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 50.8 | 45.2 | -5.6 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 44.7 | 45.9 | +1.2 |
| 4 | UNH | 10/17 | 39 | 48 | 9 | 44.4 | 51.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 47 | 5 | 42.5 | 47.5 | +5.0 |
| 6 | MassINC | 10/12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 49.4 | 49.6 | +0.2 |
| 7 | UMass Lowell | 10/11 | 45 | 44 | -1 | 48.0 | 47.1 | -0.9 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +43.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Siena | 10/17 | 27 | 66 | 39 | 29.9 | 69.2 | +39.3 |
| 2 | Marist | 9/23 | 24 | 70 | 46 | 26.7 | 73.4 | +46.7 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +1.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Siena | 10/23 | 46 | 47 | 1 | 49.4 | 50.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/23 | 49 | 43 | -6 | 51.8 | 45.2 | -6.6 |
| 3 | PPP | 10/22 | 42 | 41 | -1 | 47.4 | 46.6 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Rasmussen | 10/20 | 46 | 45 | -1 | 49.5 | 50.5 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/18 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 51.0 | 49.0 | -2.0 |
| 6 | National Research Inc. | 10/17 | 46 | 39 | -7 | 50.3 | 43.5 | -6.8 |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | 10/16 | 45 | 43 | -2 | 48.1 | 46.0 | -2.1 |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 48 | 6 | 43.5 | 49.5 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 49.0 | 48.1 | -0.9 |
| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +15.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Rasmussen | 10/20 | 49 | 38 | -11 | 54.5 | 45.5 | -9.0 |
| 2 | Suffolk U. | 10/19 | 46 | 31 | -15 | 54.7 | 39.0 | -15.7 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 54 | 41 | -13 | 55.7 | 43.4 | -12.3 |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 58.5 | 41.5 | -17.0 |
| 5 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 56 | 40 | -16 | 57.0 | 41.1 | -15.9 |
| 6 | Marist | 10/12 | 55 | 37 | -18 | 57.2 | 39.9 | -17.3 |
| 7 | Emerson College | 10/12 | 47 | 30 | -17 | 54.7 | 39.0 | -15.7 |
| 8 | Baldwin Wallace U. | 10/11 | 48 | 36 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 9 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 51 | 37 | -14 | 57.0 | 43.0 | -14.0 |
| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +24.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/12 | 32 | 54 | 22 | 36.6 | 58.5 | +21.9 |
| 2 | Gravis | 10/4 | 33 | 52 | 19 | 36.2 | 63.8 | +27.6 |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +1.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Rasmussen | 10/20 | 41 | 44 | 3 | 47.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 46 | 43 | -3 | 48.5 | 46.6 | -1.9 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 49 | 45 | -4 | 51.7 | 48.4 | -3.3 |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | Selzer | 10/11 | 45 | 47 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Susquehanna / VSS | 10/9 | 42 | 38 | -4 | 48.1 | 44.0 | -4.1 |
| 8 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 50.3 | 48.7 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Marist | 10/7 | 44 | 48 | 4 | 46.7 | 51.4 | +4.7 |
| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +29.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 10/21 | 57 | 36 | -21 | 60.5 | 39.5 | -21.0 |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon | 10/20 | 65 | 27 | -38 | 68.5 | 31.5 | -37.0 |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +32.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Rasmussen | 10/24 | 56 | 26 | -30 | 59.0 | 31.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/12 | 60 | 31 | -29 | 63.3 | 33.7 | -29.6 |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 9/9 | 60 | 23 | -37 | 65.5 | 27.6 | -37.9 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +21.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Elway | 10/22 | 34 | 58 | 24 | 38.3 | 61.8 | +23.5 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/27 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 44.5 | 52.2 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Insights West | 9/14 | 25 | 46 | 21 | 38.5 | 59.5 | +21.0 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +7.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Wilson Perkins Allen | 10/20 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 45.1 | 54.9 | +9.8 |
| 2 | PPP | 10/19 | 41 | 47 | 6 | 49.9 | 50.1 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/18 | 44 | 52 | 8 | 45.3 | 52.7 | +7.4 |
| 4 | Saint Norbert | 10/16 | 42 | 53 | 11 | 43.7 | 54.3 | +10.7 |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 46 | 51 | 5 | 47.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 |
| 6 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 39 | 58 | 19 | 40.1 | 59.7 | +19.7 |
| 7 | Marquette | 10/9 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 49.0 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
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