Every Senate Race in One Chart - October 31:Democrats 51 seats, Republicans 49 seats

Evan Bayh and Todd Young are now very close to even in their senate race in Indiana. Today's Monmouth Poll turned what had previously been a race categorized as "lean Democratic" into a "toss up", as Monmouth showed the race tied at 45% support for both candidates. Monmouth had shown Bayh up by six percentage points in a poll conducted just three weeks ago.

Senate Race Ratings: 
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +43.0 (Schumer 71.3 - Long 28.3)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
43 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
44 - Washington - Murray +21.1 (Murray 60.1 - Vance 39.0)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.7 (Bennet 55.0 - Glenn 42.3)

Likely Dem 
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +10.1 (Duckworth 53.0 - Kirk 42.9)
47 - Wisconsin - Feingold +7.2 (Feingold 52.5 - Johnson 45.3)

Lean Dem
None

Toss Up 
48 - Indiana - Bayh +2.1 (Bayh 48.1 - Young 46.0)
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +1.7 (McGinty 50.0 - Toomey 48.3)
50 - Nevada - Cortez Masto +1.0 (Cortez Masto 49.5 - Heck 48.5)
51 - Missouri - Kander +0.8 (Kander 49.0 - Blunt 48.3)
49 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +0.3 (Ayotte 48.7 - Hassan 48.4)
48 - North Carolina - Burr +1.3 (Burr 49.8 - Ross 48.5)

Lean GOP
47 - Florida - Rubio +5.0 (Rubio 52.0 - Murphy 47.0)

Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.7 (Rand Paul 54.8 - Jim Gray 45.1)
45 - Arizona - McCain +9.3 (McCain 51.5 - Kirkpatrick 42.2)
44 - Georgia - Isakson +11.3 (Isakson 54.6 - Barksdale 43.3)

Solid GOP 
43 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
42 - Ohio - Portman +14.4 (Portman 55.7 - Strickland 41.3)
41 - Arkansas - Boozman +14.4 (Boozman 52.9 - Eldridge 38.5)
40 - Iowa - Grassley +15.1 (Grassley 57.5 - Judge 42.4)
39 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)
38 - Kansas - Moran +25.1 (Moran 60.1 - Wiesner 35.0)
37 - South Dakota - Thune +29.0 (Thune 64.5 - Williams 35.5)
36 - Utah - Lee +32.3 (Lee 63.3 - Snow 31.0)
35 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
34 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
33 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
32 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
31 - Alabama - Shelby +44.3 (Shelby 71.9 - Crumpton 27.5)

Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:

Alabama						Adjusted:	R	+44.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Shelby)	Democrat (Crumpton)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Shelby)	Democrat (Crumpton)	Spread (D-R)
1	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/20	71	26	-45	72	28	-44.3
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Alaska						Adjusted:	R	+35.5
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Murkowski)	Democrat (Metcalfe)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Murkowski)	Democrat (Metcalfe)	Spread (D-R)
1	Moore	10/6	49	9	-40	52.5	20.5	-32.0
2	Alaska Survey Research	10/2	50	12	-38	56.2	17.2	-39.0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Arizona						Adjusted:	R	+9.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (McCain)	Democrat (Kirkpatrick)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (McCain)	Democrat (Kirkpatrick)	Spread (D-R)
1	YouGov	10/28	43	38	-5	49.3	42.7	-6.6
2	Monmouth U.	10/24	50	40	-10	52.3	41.7	-10.6
3	Ipsos	10/18	48	38	-10	53.1	43.0	-10.1
4	SurveyMonkey	10/16	48	45	-3	51.0	48.0	-3.0
5	ASU (Morrison/Cronkite)	10/15	52	40	-12	52.0	39.6	-12.4
6	HighGround (AZ)	10/14	45	35	-10	51.0	41.0	-10.0
7
8
9
Arkansas						Adjusted:	R	+14.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Boozman)	Democrat (Eldridge)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Boozman)	Democrat (Eldridge)	Spread (D-R)
1	Hendrix College	10/21	52	34	-18	54.8	39.3	-15.5
2	Emerson College	9/13	44	30	-15	51.0	37.8	-13.2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Colorado						Adjusted:	D	+12.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Glenn)	Democrat (Bennet)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Glenn)	Democrat (Bennet)	Spread (D-R)
1	YouGov	10/28	41	46	5	46.8	50.2	+3.4
2	Quinnipiac	10/16	38	56	18	40.7	59.4	+18.7
3	SurveyMonkey	10/16	42	52	10	45.0	55.0	+10.0
4	Magellan	10/13	32	47	15	37.7	53.3	+15.6
5	Gravis	10/13	38	48	10	44.0	55.1	+11.1
6	Monmouth U.	10/2	35	53	18	37.8	55.2	+17.4
7
8
9
Connecticut						Adjusted:	D	+26.5
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Carter)	Democrat (Blumenthal)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Carter)	Democrat (Blumenthal)	Spread (D-R)
1	Emerson College	9/5	33	54	21	38.9	61.2	+22.3
2	Quinnipiac	6/5	30	60	30	33.2	63.9	+30.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Florida						Adjusted:	R	+5.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Rubio)	Democrat (Murphy)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Rubio)	Democrat (Murphy)	Spread (D-R)
1	Siena	10/27	51	42	-9	54.4	45.7	-8.7
2	Rasmussen	10/27	49	43	-6	52.0	48.0	-4.0
3	Emerson College	10/27	49	47	-2	48.7	48.1	-0.6
4	Marist	10/26	51	43	-8	51.7	44.4	-7.3
5	St. Leo U.	10/26	53	47	-6	53.0	47.0	-6.0
6	PPP	10/26	46	46	0	52.7	48.4	-4.3
7	Gravis	10/26	46	46	0	49.5	50.6	+1.1
8	Dixie Strategies	10/26	49	43	-6	50.9	45.3	-5.6
9	U. of North Florida	10/25	49	43	-6	52.7	46.4	-6.3
Georgia						Adjusted:	R	+11.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Isakson)	Democrat (Barksdale)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Isakson)	Democrat (Barksdale)	Spread (D-R)
1	Quinnipiac	10/26	54	40	-14	56.7	43.4	-13.3
2	Abt SRBI Inc.	10/20	47	32	-15	52.2	36.5	-15.7
3	Opinion Savvy	10/20	51	42	-9	53.4	43.3	-10.1
4	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/20	59	36	-22	59.7	38.2	-21.5
5	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/18	49	39	-10	55.5	45.5	-10.0
6	SurveyMonkey	10/16	50	46	-4	52.0	48.0	-4.0
7	Landmark	10/12	50	37	-14	54.6	40.5	-14.1
8
9
Illinois						Adjusted:	D	+10.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Kirk)	Democrat (Duckworth)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Kirk)	Democrat (Duckworth)	Spread (D-R)
1	Victory (McCulloch)	10/18	39	50	11	42.9	53.9	+11.0
2	GS Strategy Group	10/5	37	41	4	41.0	53.0	+12.0
3	SIU-Carbondale	10/2	34	48	14	39.2	53.6	+14.4
4	Normington Petts	9/29	37	46	9	50.1	49.9	-0.2
5	Emerson College	9/20	39	41	2	43.1	46.1	+3.0
6
7
8
9
Indiana						Adjusted:	D	+2.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Todd Young)	Democrat (Evan Bayh)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Todd Young)	Democrat (Evan Bayh)	Spread (D-R)
1	Monmouth U.	10/30	45	45	0	47.8	47.2	-0.6
2	Gravis	10/24	37	39	2	45.0	48.1	+3.1
3	Ball State U.	10/16	43	49	6	46.0	52.0	+6.0
4
5
6
7
8
9
Iowa						Adjusted:	R	+15.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Grassley)	Democrat (Judge)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Grassley)	Democrat (Judge)	Spread (D-R)
1	Quinnipiac	10/26	56	38	-18	58.2	40.9	-17.3
2	SurveyMonkey	10/16	56	40	-16	58.5	42.5	-16.0
3	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	56	41	-15	56.6	42.4	-14.2
4	Luc.id/Times-Picayune	10/10	51	39	-12	56.5	44.5	-12.0
5	Selzer	10/6	53	36	-17	57.5	40.5	-17.0
6
7
8
9
Kansas						Adjusted:	R	+25.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Moran)	Democrat (Wiesner)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Moran)	Democrat (Wiesner)	Spread (D-R)
1	SurveyUSA	10/15	56	31	-25	60.1	35.0	-25.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Kentucky						Adjusted:	R	+9.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Rand Paul)	Democrat (Jim Gray)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Rand Paul)	Democrat (Jim Gray)	Spread (D-R)
1	RunSwitch PR/Cygnal	10/28	52	42	-10	54.8	45.1	-9.7
2	Babbage (Google C.S.)	10/15	33	27	-7	53.0	47.1	-5.9
3	Harper	8/1	50	38	-12	56.7	44.4	-12.3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Louisiana						Adjusted:	R	+13.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Kennedy)	Democrat (Campbell)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Kennedy)	Democrat (Campbell)	Spread (D-R)
1	Remington	8/30	51	27	-24	56.5	43.5	-13.0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Maryland						Adjusted:	D	+30.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Szeliga)	Democrat (Van Hollen)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Szeliga)	Democrat (Van Hollen)	Spread (D-R)
1	University of Maryland	9/30	29	58	29	32.5	61.5	+29.0
2	Goucher College	9/20	24	54	30	34.0	64.0	+30.0
3	OpinionWorks	8/30	26	55	29	35.3	64.8	+29.5
4
5
6
7
8
9
Missouri						Adjusted:	D	+0.8
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Blunt)	Democrat (Kander)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Blunt)	Democrat (Kander)	Spread (D-R)
1	BK Strategies (Brian Kelly)	10/28	47	44	-3	48.3	47.8	-0.5
2	Mason-Dixon	10/26	47	46	-1	49.0	49.0	+0.0
3	Emerson College	10/19	44	44	0	47.4	49.1	+1.7
4	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	44	51	7	45.0	52.7	+7.7
5	Monmouth U.	10/11	46	44	-2	49.8	47.2	-2.6
6
7
8
9
Nevada						Adjusted:	D	+1.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Heck)	Democrat (Cortez Masto)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Heck)	Democrat (Cortez Masto)	Spread (D-R)
1	Emerson College	10/27	48	44	-4	50.1	47.5	-2.6
2	Rasmussen	10/27	40	44	4	46.0	52.0	+6.0
3	Gravis	10/25	44	50	6	46.5	53.6	+7.1
4	Marist	10/24	49	42	-7	51.2	44.9	-6.3
5	Bendixen & Amandi	10/23	44	45	1	48.5	49.5	+1.0
6	Monmouth U.	10/17	45	42	-3	47.3	43.7	-3.6
7	SurveyMonkey	10/16	48	47	-1	50.5	49.5	-1.0
8	Opinion Research (CNN)	10/15	45	52	7	45.5	52.6	+7.1
9	YouGov	10/14	39	39	0	48.8	47.2	-1.6
New Hampshire						Adjusted:	R	+0.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Ayotte)	Democrat (Hassan)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Ayotte)	Democrat (Hassan)	Spread (D-R)
1	Praecones Analytica / InsideSources.com	10/28	49	47	-2	49.8	50.2	+0.4
2	Rasmussen	10/27	42	46	4	47.0	53.0	+6.0
3	Emerson College	10/25	50	44	-6	49.1	44.9	-4.2
4	Monmouth U.	10/25	46	46	0	47.3	46.7	-0.6
5	Marist	10/24	48	47	-1	48.7	48.4	-0.3
6	YouGov	10/21	48	44	-4	50.8	45.2	-5.6
7	UNH	10/17	39	48	9	44.4	51.7	+7.3
8	SurveyMonkey	10/16	42	47	5	42.5	47.5	+5.0
9	MassINC	10/12	47	47	0	49.4	49.6	+0.2
New York						Adjusted:	D	+43.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Long)	Democrat (Schumer)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Long)	Democrat (Schumer)	Spread (D-R)
1	Siena	10/17	27	66	39	29.9	69.2	+39.3
2	Marist	9/23	24	70	46	26.7	73.4	+46.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
North Carolina						Adjusted:	R	+1.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Burr)	Democrat (Ross)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Burr)	Democrat (Ross)	Spread (D-R)
1	YouGov	10/28	44	44	0	49.8	48.2	-1.6
2	Emerson College	10/27	48	44	-4	50.2	47.1	-3.1
3	Rasmussen	10/27	48	43	-5	51.5	48.5	-3.0
4	Marist	10/26	48	48	0	49.2	49.9	+0.7
5	Quinnipiac	10/26	48	47	-1	50.2	49.9	-0.3
6	Gravis	10/26	45	48	3	48.0	52.1	+4.1
7	Siena	10/23	46	47	1	49.4	50.7	+1.3
8	Monmouth U.	10/23	49	43	-6	51.8	45.2	-6.6
9	PPP	10/22	42	41	-1	47.4	46.6	-0.8
North Dakota						Adjusted:	R	+35.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Hoeven)	Democrat (Glassheim)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Hoeven)	Democrat (Glassheim)	Spread (D-R)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ohio						Adjusted:	R	+14.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Portman)	Democrat (Strickland)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Portman)	Democrat (Strickland)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/27	49	41	-8	53.0	47.0	-6.0
2	Emerson College	10/27	49	35	-15	54.5	41.3	-13.2
3	Suffolk U.	10/19	46	31	-15	54.7	39.0	-15.7
4	Quinnipiac	10/16	54	41	-13	55.7	43.4	-12.3
5	SurveyMonkey	10/16	56	39	-17	58.5	41.5	-17.0
6	Opinion Research (CNN)	10/15	56	40	-16	57.0	41.1	-15.9
7	Marist	10/12	55	37	-18	57.2	39.9	-17.3
8
9
Oregon						Adjusted:	D	+24.8
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Callahan)	Democrat (Wyden)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Callahan)	Democrat (Wyden)	Spread (D-R)
1	SurveyUSA	10/12	32	54	22	36.6	58.5	+21.9
2	Gravis	10/4	33	52	19	36.2	63.8	+27.6
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Pennsylvania						Adjusted:	D	+1.7
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Toomey)	Democrat (McGinty)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Toomey)	Democrat (McGinty)	Spread (D-R)
1	Gravis	10/30	41	45	4	47.0	52.1	+5.1
2	YouGov	10/28	41	44	3	48.3	49.7	+1.4
3	Rasmussen	10/27	40	47	7	45.5	54.5	+9.0
4	Muhlenberg Coll.	10/26	41	41	0	49.3	49.8	+0.5
5	Emerson College	10/25	43	45	2	44.7	48.3	+3.6
6	Siena	10/25	44	47	3	48.4	51.7	+3.3
7	Quinnipiac	10/16	49	45	-4	51.7	48.4	-3.3
8	SurveyMonkey	10/16	47	47	0	50.0	50.0	+0.0
9	Selzer	10/11	45	47	2	48.0	50.0	+2.0
South Carolina						Adjusted:	R	+22.4
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Tim Scott)	Democrat (Dixon)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Tim Scott)	Democrat (Dixon)	Spread (D-R)
1	Starboard Comms.	9/9	58	22	-36	62.0	34.0	-28.0
2	PPP	8/10	45	28	-17	54.9	38.1	-16.8
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
South Dakota						Adjusted:	R	+29.0
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Thune)	Democrat (Williams)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Thune)	Democrat (Williams)	Spread (D-R)
1	Remington	10/21	57	36	-21	60.5	39.5	-21.0
2	Mason-Dixon	10/20	65	27	-38	68.5	31.5	-37.0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Utah						Adjusted:	R	+32.3
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Mike Lee)	Democrat (Snow)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Mike Lee)	Democrat (Snow)	Spread (D-R)
1	Rasmussen	10/24	56	26	-30	59.0	31.0	-28.0
2	Dan Jones & Assocs.	10/18	61	22	-39	66.5	26.6	-39.9
3	Monmouth U.	10/12	60	31	-29	63.3	33.7	-29.6
4
5
6
7
8
9
Washington						Adjusted:	D	+21.1
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Vance)	Democrat (Murray)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Vance)	Democrat (Murray)	Spread (D-R)
1	Elway	10/22	34	58	24	38.3	61.8	+23.5
2	YouGov	10/13	39	55	16	42.8	57.2	+14.4
3	Strategies 360	10/3	36	57	21	39.0	60.1	+21.1
4
5
6
7
8
9
Wisconsin						Adjusted:	D	+7.2
	Pollster	Last day in field	Republican (Johnson)	Democrat (Feingold)	Spread (D-R)	Republican (Johnson)	Democrat (Feingold)	Spread (D-R)
1	Emerson College	10/28	44	49	5	45.3	51.1	+5.8
2	Wilson Perkins Allen	10/20	42	45	3	45.1	54.9	+9.8
3	McLaughlin & Assocs.	10/20	46	48	2	46.9	51.2	+4.3
4	PPP	10/19	41	47	6	49.9	50.1	+0.2
5	Monmouth U.	10/18	44	52	8	45.3	52.7	+7.4
6	Saint Norbert	10/16	42	53	11	43.7	54.3	+10.7
7	SurveyMonkey	10/16	46	51	5	47.5	52.5	+5.0
8	A. Power (Google C.S.)	10/14	39	58	19	40.1	59.7	+19.7
9	Marquette	10/9	46	48	2	49.0	51.1	+2.1