Democratic Party senate candidate Maggie Hassan had an extremely good poll result from the University of New Hampshire poll that came out this week, and now I've got her within a point of the lead. However, despite fivethirtyeight.com's increasing chances for a Democratic Party takeover of the senate, I still show Republicans holding onto the majority by the slimmest of margins (0.01% in Nevada still).
Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - New York - Schumer +43.0 (Schumer 71.3 - Long 28.3)
39 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
40 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
41 - Maryland - Van Hollen +30.0 (Van Hollen 64.0 - Szeliga 34.0)
42 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
43 - Oregon - Wyden +24.8 (Wyden 61.1 - Callahan 36.4)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 43.4)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +14.3 (Bennet 55.0 - Glenn 40.7)
Likely Dem
46 - Illinois - Duckworth +7.9 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 43.1)
Lean Dem
47 - Indiana - Bayh +5.5 (Bayh 50.6 - Young 45.2)
48 - Wisconsin - Feingold +5.0 (Feingold 52.5 - Johnson 47.5)
Toss Up
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +0.1 (McGinty 49.4 - Toomey 49.3)
51 - Nevada - Heck +0.01 (Heck 47.88 - Cortez Masto 47.87)
50 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +0.6 (Ayotte 48.0 - Hassan 47.4)
49 - Missouri - Blunt +0.7 (Blunt 49.8 - Kander 49.1)
48 - North Carolina - Burr +1.0 (Burr 49.0 - Ross 48.0)
47 - Florida - Rubio +2.2 (Rubio 50.5 - Murphy 48.4)
Lean GOP
None
Likely GOP
46 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +9.1 (Rand Paul 54.8 - Jim Gray 45.7)
Solid GOP
45 - Arizona - McCain +12.1 (McCain 52.8 - Kirkpatrick 40.7)
44 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
43 - Georgia - Isakson +13.1 (Isakson 54.3 - Barksdale 41.2)
42 - Ohio - Portman +15.0 (Portman 56.5 - Strickland 41.5)
41 - Iowa - Grassley +14.6 (Grassley 57.1 - Judge 42.5)
40 - Arkansas - Boozman +18.2 (Boozman 54.4 - Eldridge 36.2)
39 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)38 - Kansas - Moran +25.1 (Moran 60.1 - Wiesner 35.0)
37 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
36 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
35 - Utah - Lee +32.3 (Lee 63.3 - Snow 31.0)
34 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
33 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.5 (Murkowski 54.3 - Metcalfe 18.8)
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +35.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 10/6 | 49 | 9 | -40 | 52.5 | 20.5 | -32.0 |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | 10/2 | 50 | 12 | -38 | 56.2 | 17.2 | -39.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +12.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 48 | 45 | -3 | 51.0 | 48.0 | -3.0 |
| 2 | ASU (Morrison/Cronkite) | 10/15 | 52 | 40 | -12 | 52.0 | 39.6 | -12.4 |
| 3 | HighGround (AZ) | 10/14 | 45 | 35 | -10 | 51.0 | 41.0 | -10.0 |
| 4 | Emerson College | 10/4 | 52 | 36 | -15 | 53.7 | 39.6 | -14.1 |
| 5 | Insights West | 9/14 | 53 | 35 | -18 | 58.5 | 40.5 | -18.0 |
| 6 | Marist | 9/8 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 59.2 | 40.9 | -18.3 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +18.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Hendrix College | 9/17 | 55 | 29 | -26 | 57.9 | 34.6 | -23.3 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +14.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 38 | 56 | 18 | 40.7 | 59.4 | +18.7 |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 52 | 10 | 45.0 | 55.0 | +10.0 |
| 3 | Magellan | 10/13 | 32 | 47 | 15 | 37.7 | 53.3 | +15.6 |
| 4 | Gravis | 10/13 | 38 | 48 | 10 | 40.7 | 58.3 | +17.6 |
| 5 | Monmouth U. | 10/2 | 35 | 53 | 18 | 37.8 | 55.2 | +17.4 |
| 6 | PPP | 9/28 | 34 | 44 | 10 | 41.4 | 51.6 | +10.2 |
| 7 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/25 | 43 | 53 | 10 | 44.0 | 54.1 | +10.1 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +2.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/18 | 45 | 44 | -1 | 50.5 | 49.5 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 49 | 47 | -2 | 50.7 | 49.4 | -1.3 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 51 | 45 | -6 | 53.0 | 47.0 | -6.0 |
| 4 | Gravis | 10/13 | 44 | 36 | -8 | 48.2 | 50.8 | +2.6 |
| 5 | PPP | 10/13 | 44 | 38 | -6 | 49.9 | 44.1 | -5.8 |
| 6 | Opinion Savvy | 10/11 | 48 | 44 | -4 | 52.2 | 47.9 | -4.3 |
| 7 | Marist | 10/5 | 48 | 46 | -2 | 49.7 | 48.4 | -1.3 |
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| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +13.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Abt SRBI Inc. | 10/20 | 47 | 32 | -15 | 52.2 | 36.5 | -15.7 |
| 2 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/18 | 49 | 39 | -10 | 55.5 | 45.5 | -10.0 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 50 | 46 | -4 | 52.0 | 48.0 | -4.0 |
| 4 | Landmark | 10/12 | 50 | 37 | -14 | 54.6 | 40.5 | -14.1 |
| 5 | JMC Analytics | 9/22 | 41 | 28 | -13 | 54.1 | 42.0 | -12.1 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 34 | -21 | 59.7 | 39.4 | -20.3 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +7.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | 10/5 | 37 | 41 | 4 | 41.0 | 53.0 | +12.0 |
| 2 | SIU-Carbondale | 10/2 | 34 | 48 | 14 | 39.2 | 53.6 | +14.4 |
| 3 | Normington Petts | 9/29 | 37 | 46 | 9 | 50.1 | 49.9 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Emerson College | 9/20 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 43.1 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Loras College | 9/16 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 47.4 | 51.0 | +3.6 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +5.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Ball State U. | 10/16 | 43 | 49 | 6 | 46.0 | 52.0 | +6.0 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/13 | 42 | 48 | 6 | 44.3 | 49.7 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Pub. Op. Strategies (POS) | 10/11 | 40 | 39 | -1 | 42.3 | 49.7 | +7.4 |
| 4 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 43 | 46 | 3 | 48.5 | 51.5 | +3.0 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +14.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 56 | 40 | -16 | 58.5 | 42.5 | -16.0 |
| 2 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 56 | 41 | -15 | 56.6 | 42.4 | -14.2 |
| 3 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 51 | 39 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 4 | Selzer | 10/6 | 53 | 36 | -17 | 57.5 | 40.5 | -17.0 |
| 5 | Loras College | 9/22 | 54 | 37 | -17 | 59.1 | 41.0 | -18.1 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 9/21 | 55 | 43 | -12 | 55.7 | 44.4 | -11.3 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +25.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/15 | 56 | 31 | -25 | 60.1 | 35.0 | -25.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +9.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage (Google C.S.) | 10/15 | 33 | 27 | -7 | 53.0 | 47.1 | -5.9 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | University of Maryland | 9/30 | 29 | 58 | 29 | 32.5 | 61.5 | +29.0 |
| 2 | Goucher College | 9/20 | 24 | 54 | 30 | 34.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +0.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 47.4 | 49.1 | +1.7 |
| 2 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 44 | 51 | 7 | 45.0 | 52.7 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Monmouth U. | 10/11 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 4 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 5 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | R | +0.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 10/17 | 45 | 42 | -3 | 47.3 | 43.7 | -3.6 |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 50.5 | 49.5 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 45 | 52 | 7 | 45.5 | 52.6 | +7.1 |
| 4 | YouGov | 10/14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 48.8 | 47.2 | -1.6 |
| 5 | JMC Analytics | 10/13 | 41 | 47 | 6 | 41.4 | 48.1 | +6.7 |
| 6 | Pub. Op. Strategies (POS) | 10/12 | 47 | 44 | -3 | 47.3 | 48.7 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 10/11 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 48.5 | 43.6 | -4.9 |
| 8 | PPP | 10/11 | 39 | 43 | 4 | 52.4 | 47.6 | -4.8 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +0.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 44.7 | 45.9 | +1.2 |
| 2 | UNH | 10/17 | 39 | 48 | 9 | 44.4 | 51.7 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 47 | 5 | 42.5 | 47.5 | +5.0 |
| 4 | MassINC | 10/12 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 49.4 | 49.6 | +0.2 |
| 5 | UMass Lowell | 10/11 | 45 | 44 | -1 | 48.0 | 47.1 | -0.9 |
| 6 | PPP | 10/9 | 43 | 44 | 1 | 52.7 | 47.4 | -5.3 |
| 7 | Suffolk U. | 10/5 | 47 | 41 | -6 | 51.4 | 44.7 | -6.7 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +43.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Siena | 10/17 | 27 | 66 | 39 | 29.9 | 69.2 | +39.3 |
| 2 | Marist | 9/23 | 24 | 70 | 46 | 26.7 | 73.4 | +46.7 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +1.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/18 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 51.0 | 49.0 | -2.0 |
| 2 | National Research Inc. | 10/17 | 46 | 39 | -7 | 50.3 | 43.5 | -6.8 |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | 10/16 | 45 | 43 | -2 | 48.1 | 46.0 | -2.1 |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 42 | 48 | 6 | 43.5 | 49.5 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 49.0 | 48.1 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Marist | 10/12 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 48.7 | 49.4 | +0.7 |
| 7 | Emerson College | 10/12 | 45 | 43 | -2 | 48.5 | 48.0 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Suffolk U. | 10/12 | 40 | 36 | -3 | 49.2 | 45.3 | -3.9 |
| 9 | High Point U. | 10/6 | 47 | 42 | -5 | 49.5 | 44.5 | -5.0 |
| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +15.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Suffolk U. | 10/19 | 46 | 31 | -15 | 54.7 | 39.0 | -15.7 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 54 | 41 | -13 | 55.7 | 43.4 | -12.3 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 58.5 | 41.5 | -17.0 |
| 4 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 10/15 | 56 | 40 | -16 | 57.0 | 41.1 | -15.9 |
| 5 | Marist | 10/12 | 55 | 37 | -18 | 57.2 | 39.9 | -17.3 |
| 6 | Emerson College | 10/12 | 47 | 30 | -17 | 54.7 | 39.0 | -15.7 |
| 7 | Baldwin Wallace U. | 10/11 | 48 | 36 | -12 | 56.5 | 44.5 | -12.0 |
| 8 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 51 | 37 | -14 | 57.0 | 43.0 | -14.0 |
| 9 | YouGov | 10/7 | 49 | 38 | -11 | 54.8 | 42.2 | -12.6 |
| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +24.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 10/12 | 32 | 54 | 22 | 36.6 | 58.5 | +21.9 |
| 2 | Gravis | 10/4 | 33 | 52 | 19 | 36.2 | 63.8 | +27.6 |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +0.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 10/19 | 46 | 43 | -3 | 48.5 | 46.6 | -1.9 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 10/16 | 49 | 45 | -4 | 51.7 | 48.4 | -3.3 |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | Selzer | 10/11 | 45 | 47 | 2 | 48.0 | 50.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 | Luc.id/Times-Picayune | 10/10 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Susquehanna / VSS | 10/9 | 42 | 38 | -4 | 48.1 | 44.0 | -4.1 |
| 7 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 50.3 | 48.7 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Marist | 10/7 | 44 | 48 | 4 | 46.7 | 51.4 | +4.7 |
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| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +32.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Rasmussen | 10/16 | 57 | 25 | -32 | 61.0 | 31.0 | -30.0 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/12 | 60 | 31 | -29 | 63.3 | 33.7 | -29.6 |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 9/9 | 60 | 23 | -37 | 65.5 | 27.6 | -37.9 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +17.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/27 | 41 | 48 | 6 | 44.5 | 52.2 | +7.7 |
| 2 | Insights West | 9/14 | 25 | 46 | 21 | 38.5 | 59.5 | +21.0 |
| 3 | Elway | 8/13 | 34 | 52 | 18 | 41.3 | 58.8 | +17.5 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +5.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | PPP | 10/19 | 41 | 47 | 6 | 49.9 | 50.1 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 10/18 | 44 | 52 | 8 | 45.3 | 52.7 | +7.4 |
| 3 | Saint Norbert | 10/16 | 42 | 53 | 11 | 43.7 | 54.3 | +10.7 |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | 10/16 | 46 | 51 | 5 | 47.5 | 52.5 | +5.0 |
| 5 | A. Power (Google C.S.) | 10/14 | 39 | 58 | 19 | 40.1 | 59.7 | +19.7 |
| 6 | Marquette | 10/9 | 46 | 48 | 2 | 49.0 | 51.1 | +2.1 |
| 7 | YouGov | 10/7 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 49.3 | 50.7 | +1.4 |
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