Senate Race Ratings:
Solid Dem
37 - California** - Harris or Sanchez
38 - Hawaii - Schatz +~40
39 - Vermont - Leahy +~40
40 - New York - Schumer +38.3 (Schumer 66.7 - Long 28.4)
41 - Oregon - Wyden +~30
42 - Maryland - Van Hollen +29.5 (Van Hollen 64.8 - Szeliga 35.3)
43 - Connecticut - Blumenthal +26.5 (Blumenthal 62.5 - Carter 36.0)
44 - Washington - Murray +17.5 (Murray 58.8 - Vance 41.3)
45 - Colorado - Bennet +12.9 (Bennet 54.3 - Glenn 41.4)
Likely Dem
46 - Wisconsin - Feingold +9.7 (Feingold 53.6 - Johnson 44.0)
47 - Indiana - Bayh +6.2 (Bayh 50.8 - Young 44.7)
Lean Dem
48 - Illinois - Duckworth +3.6 (Duckworth 51.0 - Kirk 47.4)
Toss Up
49 - Pennsylvania - McGinty +1.0 (McGinty 48.8 - Toomey 47.8)
51 - Nevada - Heck +0.1 (Heck 48.9 - Cortez Masto 48.8)
50 - New Hampshire - Ayotte +0.6 (Ayotte 49.8 - Hassan 49.2)
49 - North Carolina - Burr +1.4 (Burr 49.3 - Ross 47.9)
Lean GOP
48 - Missouri - Blunt +3.5 (Blunt 51.0 - Kander 47.5)
47 - Florida - Rubio +5.9 (Rubio 51.9 - Murphy 46.0)
Likely GOP
46 - Iowa - Grassley +9.3 (Grassley 53.5 - Judge 44.2)
Solid GOP
45 - Arizona - McCain +12.1 (McCain 53.0 - Kirkpatrick 40.9)
44 - Ohio - Portman +13.0 (Portman 54.5 - Strickland 41.6)
43 - Louisiana* - Kennedy +13.0 (Kennedy 56.5 - Campbell 43.5)
42 - Arkansas - Boozman +14.9 (Boozman 53.1 - Eldridge 38.3)
41 - Georgia - Isakson +15.1 (Isakson 54.6 - Barksdale 39.5)
40 - Kentucky - Rand Paul +15.5 (Rand Paul 58.0 - Jim Gray 42.5)
39 - Kansas - Moran +16.1 (Moran 55.6 - Wiesner 39.5)
38 - South Carolina - Scott +22.4 (Scott 58.5 - Dixon 36.1)
37 - Utah - Lee +29.8 (Lee 60.9 - Snow 31.1)
36 - Alabama - Shelby +~30
35 - South Dakota - Thune +~30
34 - Alaska - Murkowski +35.0 (Murkowski 60.0 - Metcalfe 25.0)
33 - North Dakota - Hoeven +~35
32 - Idaho - Crapo +~36
31 - Oklahoma - Lankford +~40
Today’s prediction is based on the following polls:
| Alabama | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Shelby) | Democrat (Crumpton) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Alaska | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Murkowski) | Democrat (Metcalfe) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Moore | 8/29 | 56 | 12 | -44 | 60.0 | 25.0 | -35.0 |
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| Arizona | Adjusted: | R | +12.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (McCain) | Democrat (Kirkpatrick) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marist | 9/8 | 57 | 38 | -19 | 59.2 | 40.9 | -18.3 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/27 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 50.4 | 50.6 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 8/23 | 52 | 39 | -13 | 53.0 | 40.1 | -12.9 |
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| Arkansas | Adjusted: | R | +14.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Boozman) | Democrat (Eldridge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 44 | 30 | -15 | 51.0 | 37.8 | -13.2 |
| 2 | Hendrix College | 6/21 | 51 | 29 | -22 | 55.3 | 38.8 | -16.5 |
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| Colorado | Adjusted: | D | +12.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Glenn) | Democrat (Bennet) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 39 | 46 | 7 | 42.4 | 50.8 | +8.4 |
| 2 | Magellan | 8/31 | 38 | 48 | 10 | 41.2 | 51.8 | +10.6 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 8/16 | 38 | 54 | 16 | 41.7 | 58.4 | +16.7 |
| 4 | Marist | 8/10 | 38 | 53 | 15 | 41.2 | 56.9 | +15.7 |
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| Connecticut | Adjusted: | D | +26.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Carter) | Democrat (Blumenthal) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 33 | 54 | 21 | 38.9 | 61.2 | +22.3 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 6/5 | 30 | 60 | 30 | 33.2 | 63.9 | +30.7 |
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| Florida | Adjusted: | R | +5.9 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rubio) | Democrat (Murphy) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 9/19 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 2 | St. Leo U. | 9/16 | 44 | 35 | -10 | 54.8 | 45.2 | -9.6 |
| 3 | Siena | 9/14 | 48 | 42 | -6 | 51.9 | 46.2 | -5.7 |
| 4 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/12 | 54 | 43 | -11 | 54.0 | 43.1 | -10.9 |
| 5 | JMC Analytics | 9/8 | 43 | 38 | -5 | 50.1 | 46.0 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 9/7 | 50 | 43 | -7 | 52.7 | 46.4 | -6.3 |
| 7 | PPP | 9/6 | 40 | 37 | -3 | 46.4 | 43.6 | -2.8 |
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| Georgia | Adjusted: | R | +15.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Isakson) | Democrat (Barksdale) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 9/18 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.3 | 38.7 | -16.6 |
| 2 | Insider Adv. / Opinion Sa | 9/14 | 47 | 34 | -13 | 53.9 | 40.3 | -13.6 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 48 | 32 | -16 | 52.3 | 37.6 | -14.7 |
| 4 | Marist | 9/8 | 53 | 38 | -15 | 57.2 | 42.9 | -14.3 |
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| Illinois | Adjusted: | D | +3.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kirk) | Democrat (Duckworth) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Loras College | 9/16 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 47.4 | 51.0 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Normington Petts | 8/4 | 37 | 44 | 7 | 51.6 | 48.4 | -3.2 |
| 3 | GS Strategy Group | 3/31 | 40 | 43 | 3 | 44.0 | 56.0 | +12.0 |
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| Indiana | Adjusted: | D | +6.2 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Todd Young) | Democrat (Evan Bayh) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | 9/8 | 40 | 44 | 4 | 44.6 | 50.5 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 8/16 | 41 | 48 | 7 | 44.8 | 51.2 | +6.4 |
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| Iowa | Adjusted: | R | +9.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Grassley) | Democrat (Judge) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 9/14 | 56 | 39 | -17 | 57.8 | 40.2 | -17.6 |
| 2 | RABA Research | 9/8 | 50 | 37 | -13 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 9/1 | 51 | 40 | -11 | 53.4 | 43.7 | -9.7 |
| 4 | PPP | 8/31 | 49 | 43 | -6 | 52.9 | 47.1 | -5.8 |
| 5 | YouGov | 8/19 | 45 | 38 | -7 | 53.3 | 44.7 | -8.6 |
| 6 | Quinnipiac | 8/16 | 51 | 42 | -9 | 53.7 | 45.4 | -8.3 |
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| Kansas | Adjusted: | R | +16.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Moran) | Democrat (Wiesner) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | SurveyUSA | 9/11 | 50 | 34 | -16 | 55.6 | 39.5 | -16.1 |
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| Kentucky | Adjusted: | R | +15.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Rand Paul) | Democrat (Jim Gray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Babbage Cofounder | 8/4 | 59 | 41 | -19 | 59.3 | 40.7 | -18.6 |
| 2 | Harper | 8/1 | 50 | 38 | -12 | 56.7 | 44.4 | -12.3 |
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| Louisiana | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Kennedy) | Democrat (Campbell) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Remington | 8/30 | 51 | 27 | -24 | 56.5 | 43.5 | -13.0 |
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| Maryland | Adjusted: | D | +29.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Szeliga) | Democrat (Van Hollen) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | OpinionWorks | 8/30 | 26 | 55 | 29 | 35.3 | 64.8 | +29.5 |
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| Missouri | Adjusted: | R | +3.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Blunt) | Democrat (Kander) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Emerson College | 9/13 | 40 | 42 | 2 | 43.3 | 47.0 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Remington | 9/2 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 50.3 | 49.8 | -0.5 |
| 3 | PPP | 8/27 | 47 | 43 | -4 | 51.9 | 48.1 | -3.8 |
| 4 | Monmouth U. | 8/22 | 48 | 43 | -5 | 51.8 | 46.2 | -5.6 |
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| Nevada | Adjusted: | R | +0.1 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Heck) | Democrat (Cortez Masto) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Rasmussen | 9/18 | 44 | 40 | -4 | 48.5 | 46.5 | -2.0 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 9/13 | 46 | 43 | -3 | 48.3 | 44.7 | -3.6 |
| 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosn | 9/8 | 47 | 49 | 2 | 51.2 | 48.8 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Marist | 9/8 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 50.7 | 49.4 | -1.3 |
| 5 | PPP | 9/7 | 41 | 42 | 1 | 48.9 | 50.1 | +1.2 |
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| New Hampshire | Adjusted: | R | +0.6 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Ayotte) | Democrat (Hassan) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Monmouth U. | 9/20 | 47 | 45 | -2 | 49.8 | 47.2 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Marist | 9/8 | 52 | 44 | -8 | 53.7 | 46.4 | -7.3 |
| 3 | Emerson College | 9/5 | 48 | 46 | -2 | 50.4 | 49.7 | -0.7 |
| 4 | PPP | 8/31 | 44 | 47 | 3 | 48.4 | 51.6 | +3.2 |
| 5 | UNH | 8/28 | 42 | 44 | 2 | 48.9 | 49.2 | +0.3 |
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| New York | Adjusted: | D | +38.3 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Long) | Democrat (Schumer) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Siena | 9/15 | 23 | 69 | 46 | 26.9 | 73.2 | +46.3 |
| 2 | Emerson College | 8/30 | 23 | 60 | 37 | 28.4 | 66.7 | +38.3 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 7/17 | 28 | 60 | 32 | 33.2 | 65.9 | +32.7 |
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| North Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +1.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Burr) | Democrat (Ross) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | PPP | 9/20 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 48.4 | 48.6 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Elon U. | 9/16 | 45 | 45 | 1 | 47.6 | 47.9 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 9/7 | 49 | 43 | -6 | 52.7 | 47.4 | -5.3 |
| 4 | Suffolk U. | 9/7 | 41 | 37 | -4 | 49.4 | 44.7 | -4.7 |
| 5 | YouGov | 9/2 | 40 | 41 | 1 | 49.3 | 48.7 | -0.6 |
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| North Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +35.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Hoeven) | Democrat (Glassheim) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Ohio | Adjusted: | R | +13.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Portman) | Democrat (Strickland) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Suffolk U. | 9/14 | 39 | 31 | -8 | 52.4 | 43.7 | -8.7 |
| 2 | Opinion Research (CNN) | 9/12 | 58 | 37 | -21 | 59.0 | 38.1 | -20.9 |
| 3 | Selzer | 9/12 | 53 | 36 | -17 | 56.5 | 39.5 | -17.0 |
| 4 | Quinnipiac | 9/7 | 51 | 40 | -11 | 54.7 | 44.4 | -10.3 |
| 5 | PPP | 8/27 | 48 | 39 | -9 | 54.4 | 45.6 | -8.8 |
| 6 | Emerson College | 8/27 | 40 | 25 | -15 | 51.9 | 38.2 | -13.7 |
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| Oregon | Adjusted: | D | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Callahan) | Democrat (Wyden) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Pennsylvania | Adjusted: | D | +1.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Toomey) | Democrat (McGinty) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Muhlenberg Coll. | 9/16 | 38 | 43 | 5 | 47.3 | 52.8 | +5.5 |
| 2 | Quinnipiac | 9/7 | 46 | 45 | -1 | 49.2 | 48.9 | -0.3 |
| 3 | YouGov | 9/2 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 49.8 | 48.2 | -1.6 |
| 4 | PPP | 8/31 | 41 | 44 | 3 | 48.4 | 51.6 | +3.2 |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall | 8/29 | 38 | 43 | 5 | 46.8 | 52.2 | +5.4 |
| 6 | Monmouth U. | 8/29 | 41 | 45 | 4 | 45.3 | 48.7 | +3.4 |
| 7 | GBA Strategies | 8/28 | 42 | 47 | 5 | 44.2 | 47.9 | +3.7 |
| 8 | Emerson College | 8/28 | 46 | 39 | -7 | 50.4 | 44.7 | -5.7 |
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| South Carolina | Adjusted: | R | +22.4 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Tim Scott) | Democrat (Dixon) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Starboard Comms. | 9/9 | 58 | 22 | -36 | 62.0 | 34.0 | -28.0 |
| 2 | PPP | 8/10 | 45 | 28 | -17 | 54.9 | 38.1 | -16.8 |
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| South Dakota | Adjusted: | R | +30.0 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Thune) | Democrat (Williams) | Spread (D-R) | |
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| Utah | Adjusted: | R | +29.8 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Mike Lee) | Democrat (Snow) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | PPP | 8/21 | 51 | 21 | -30 | 60.9 | 31.1 | -29.8 |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Assocs. | 8/4 | 57 | 22 | -35 | 63.5 | 27.6 | -35.9 |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | 6/8 | 51 | 37 | -14 | 55.1 | 41.0 | -14.1 |
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| Washington | Adjusted: | D | +17.5 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Vance) | Democrat (Murray) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Elway | 8/13 | 34 | 52 | 18 | 41.3 | 58.8 | +17.5 |
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| Wisconsin | Adjusted: | D | +9.7 | |||||
| Pollster | Last day in field | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | Republican (Johnson) | Democrat (Feingold) | Spread (D-R) | |
| 1 | Marquette | 9/18 | 39 | 44 | 5 | 44.0 | 49.1 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Monmouth U. | 8/30 | 41 | 54 | 13 | 42.8 | 55.2 | +12.4 |
| 3 | PPP | 8/27 | 42 | 49 | 7 | 46.4 | 53.6 | +7.2 |
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